Influences And Spatial Effects Of Industrial Structure Upgrading On Employment Structure

The report to the 19 th CPC National Congress set out China’s future development strategy,namely,two 15-years to achieve the goal of becoming a great modern socialist country.However,under the premise of unreasonable and uncoordinated industrial structure and employment structure,China still has a long way to optimize and adjust its structure in the face of such a difficult target.Under the background of high-quality development,how to coordinate employment structure and industrial structure is an urgent problem to be solved,but the prerequisite is to clarify the correlation between the two.At present,it is generally believed that the upgrading of industrial structure has dual effects on employment: employment substitution effect and employment creation effect.Although both effects coexist,it is difficult to distinguish which one is dominant.Qualitative analysis is difficult,most studies from quantitative analysis in-depth.Therefore,a large number of empirical studies based on national conditions have been carried out,but the findings are not consistent.Therefore,through the combination of theory and evidence,this paper has conducted a comprehensive study on the relationship between industrial and employment in the past two decades:The first is to research the current situation,exploring the representation characteristics of data.Firstly,through the combination of horizontal and vertical comparison,the structure of industrial and employment are compared.In the past two decades,the industrial structure has changed from "231" to "321",and the employment structure has changed from "132" to "321".Both of them lag behind the major developed countries for more than half a century,and the domestic local differences are also great.Secondly,the correlation and coordination between the two are investigated through a variety of indicators to find the existing problems.The second is to carry out theoretical analysis to explore the influence of industrial structure upgrading on employment structure.The employment structure change model is constructed.Agriculture,Service and Manufacturing are represented in order of labor substitution elasticity from smallest to largest.On the premise of relevant assumptions in line with the facts,the changes of employment structure will be as follows: Agricultural employment converges to 0;Manufacturing is constrained by the maximum value,and the employment first increases and then decreases.Service employment converges to 1.The third is to conduct an empirical analysis,exploring the internal relationship of data.The basic model and spatial model are constructed to investigate the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment.Firstly,the basic model shows that the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment in China is as follows: slight promotion of total employment,suppression of employment in the Primary Industry,promotion of employment in the Secondary Industry,promotion of employment in the Tertiary Industry and promotion of employment upgrading,but there is a lag.Secondly,it is found that the industrial structure needs further scientific adjustment in Northern and Central China.Finally,the spatial analysis shows that the number of employment has a spatial positive correlation,and the industrial structure upgrading has a spatial spillover effect on Primary Industry employment,Tertiary Industry employment and employment structure.