| Population aging is a new topic facing the world,the change in age structure is the inevitable product of rapid economic development,according to United Nations statistics,China’s population aging scale accounts for the first place in the world,in2020 China’s 65-year-old population has accounted for 13.5% of the total population,of which the 60-year-old population accounted for 18.7%,significantly exceeding the United Nations definition of aging standards,the seriousness of China’s aging problem has reached a period that cannot be ignored.The demographic dividend has disappeared,and the aging of the population has affected China’s labor market(including the quality of labor and the quantity of labor),thus changing the endowment structure of China’s capital and labor,and promoting the change of the export advantages of the industry,which will undoubtedly have an impact on the export trade structure of China’s manufacturing industry.Therefore,based on the background of a large manufacturing production and export country such as China and the deepening aging of the population,it is important to study the impact of aging on the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry.This paper first sorts out the current situation and characteristics of China’s population aging development,analyzes the export trade of China’s manufacturing industry in recent years,and then analyzes the relationship between aging and manufacturing export trade based on the theory of comparative advantage,factor endowment theory and Robertzinski’s theorem,and discusses the impact mechanism of population aging on the structure of manufacturing export trade from the perspective of labor cost and human capital level,so as to propose three research hypotheses in this paper.In the empirical part,the provincial data of China from 2006 to 2019 are selected,two indicators to measure the degree of population aging are taken as explanatory variables,the 28 industries in the manufacturing industry are divided by factor intensity,and the proportion of labor-intensive product exports in the manufacturing industry is used as the explanatory variable to depict the changes in the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry.Establish a benchmark model to explore the overall effect of population aging on the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry,and establish an intermediary effect model based on the perspective of labor cost and human capital level,explore the impact mechanism of population aging on the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry,and finally put forward corresponding policy suggestions in combination with the national conditions.This article consists mainly of six parts.The first chapter introduces the background and research significance of the article,clarifies the research content and methods of this paper,and finally points out the innovation and shortcomings on this basis.The second chapter first explains the aging and the measurement of the export structure of the manufacturing industry,and then sorts out the literature on population aging and export-related literature,including the study of population aging on the labor market,population aging and export structure,as well as the literature on the relationship between population aging and social consumption and savings,which lays the foundation for the feasibility of the study.The third chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics of the aging population and the structure of manufacturing export trade.The fourth chapter is a theoretical analysis of the structure of manufacturing export trade by population aging,based on three international trade theories,namely comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory and Robertzinski’s theorem,to analyze the relationship between aging and manufacturing export trade,and to explore the mechanism of the impact of population aging on the structure of manufacturing export trade from the perspective of labor market.In the empirical analysis section of the fifth chapter,the manufacturing panel data of 28 provinces from 2006 to 2019 are selected to verify the overall effect of population aging on the structure of manufacturing export trade and the mediation effect.Chapter VI conclusions and recommendations,the last chapter of the full text analysis of the synthesis and summary of the results of the article analysis,and finally combined with the national conditions of the country to put forward relevant suggestions.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,this paper concludes that:First,The aging problem in China is severe,and the deepening of population aging reduces the proportion of the working-age population,resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market;second,there is a correlation between population aging and the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry,and the negative direction of aging affects the export of labor-intensive industries,and the positive impact on the export of capital and technology-intensive industries is ultimately conducive to the improvement of the export trade structure of the manufacturing industry;third,the intermediary effect test based on the perspective of labor supply finds that the test finds that Population aging positively affects the structure of manufacturing export trade through the path of labor cost(wage level)and human capital level.According to the results of the previous analysis,and based on the form of aging in China and the background of accelerating the development of the trade structure,relevant suggestions are put forward,including:(1)reasonable increase in labor supply to cope with the adverse effects of aging;(2)enhance investment in human capital and give play to the positive effects of population aging;(3)accelerate the transformation of labor-intensive industries and promote the upgrading of manufacturing export structure. |
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