Research On The Impact Of Urban Family Population’s Age Structure On Consumption Demand From The Perspective Of Distribution

At this stage,China’s economy is facing a critical period of steady transition of growth rate and accelerated transformation of economic structure.However,the increasing trend of anti-globalization in the international situation,the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,coupled with internal structural problems and contradictions,make China’s economic development facing Great challenge.Therefore,accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other is a systemic and deep-level change that concerns the overall situation,and expanding consumption and domestic demand has become an important focus of development.At the same time as China’s rapid economic growth,the age structure of its population has also changed.The new census data shows that the proportion of the population aged 0-14 has dropped from 33.6% in 1982 to 17.95% in 2020,and the proportion of the population aged 65 and above has dropped from 4.9%.The increase was 13.50%.The decline in the proportion of children in the population coincided with the increase in the proportion of the elderly population,which means that China has joined the ranks of countries with the fastest aging population.As one of the important influencing factors of consumer demand,how the evolution of China’s population structure affects consumer demand has become an important research topic.Combining the changes in China’s population structure,it is particularly critical to propose countermeasures and suggestions to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption.This paper discusses the influence mechanism of the age structure of urban households in my country on consumption demand from the perspective of distribution.Based on the relevant theoretical foundations,from the perspective of distribution,it is analyzed from the measurement of urban family population age structure and consumption demand,the influence mechanism of urban family population age structure on the distribution of consumer demand,and the threshold effect of urban family population age structure on consumer demand..First,using the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the "China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook",and selecting the CHIP data and using the non-parametric kernel density method to respectively fit the urban family population age structure and the distribution pattern of consumption demand,it is found that the proportion of urban children in my country has dropped significantly.The aging degree is deepening,the fluctuation of the working-age population is decreasing,and the aging degree of the labor force is increasing.The overall consumption demand of urban households shows an upward trend,but the consumption level is not high and the consumption tendency has a downward trend,and the consumption demand is weak.Secondly,further analyze the impact mechanism of population age structure on consumption demand,construct indicators of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio,and use quantile regression and other methods to conduct in-depth analysis using CFPS data in 2012 and2018.The growth of consumption demand of households at different levels has a significant role in promoting it.The decline in the child dependency ratio leads to a decrease in the consumption demand of urban households;the elderly dependency ratio is in the opposite direction to the growth of household consumption demand in lowlevel and middle-high-level consumer families,which means that the elderly support The increase in the ratio is another important reason for the decline in household consumption demand.Finally,the CFPS data is used to further examine the threshold effect on consumer demand from the perspective of population age structure.The results show that after reaching the threshold,the age structure of the family population continues to The promotion has a positive impact on consumer demand and the effect is significantly enhanced.Therefore,based on the distribution perspective,this paper gradually analyzes the influence mechanism of the age structure of the urban family population on consumption demand,and finds that promoting the optimization of the age structure of the family population and increasing the population of children within a certain range have a positive impact on expanding consumption demand.Therefore,adjusting population policies in a timely manner,creating a fertile social environment in terms of institutional guarantee,material investment,environmental improvement,and service optimization,attaching importance to the welfare of children and the elderly,and promoting the development of various social welfare benefits such as fertility,education,and medical care will help Improve the age structure of the population and further expand domestic demand.