| The material base is an important cornerstone to ensure the vigorous development of a city,and real estate is the key material to promote the development of urbanization,which has a great impact on the economy,life and other aspects of a city.At the same time,residential assets are not only an important part of family,company and other assets,but also the main source of household wealth and income.The Pearl River Delta has an open economic environment and efficient population mobility.The rapid rise of commercial housing prices caused by the high proportion of population mobility has also become the focus of national attention.This thesis expounds the current situation of industrial agglomeration,population flow and commercial housing market in the Pearl River Delta,and analyzes its development trend in time and space.Then,we analyze the relevant panel data of nine cities in China’s Pearl River Delta city cluster from 2010 to 2019,and study the impact of industrial agglomeration on the fluctuation of commodity housing prices.We also use regression models to analyze the city’s housing prices,and select the first order generalized moment estimation method for robustness test.Finally,the intermediary effect model is used to verify the indirect impact of population mobility on industrial agglomeration and commercial housing prices in the Pearl River Delta.The research shows that at present,the agglomeration of manufacturing industry,construction industry and real estate industry in the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta has a positive impact on the real estate price level,and the agglomeration of financial industry has a negative impact on the real estate price level,indicating that manufacturing industry and construction industry belong to the secondary industry and are important components of the real economy,while finance industry and real estate industry belong to the tertiary industry and are important components of the virtual economy,This result means that the development of real economy is more conducive to the improvement of real estate price level.The real estate industry is closely related to commercial housing,which can promote the improvement of real estate price level.The greater the gap between regions where the financial industry is concentrated,the more controllable the sharp rise in house prices will be.The impact of industrial agglomeration on commercial housing prices in the Pearl River Delta has specific regional heterogeneity.In addition,the test results based on the intermediary effect model show that population mobility plays a partial intermediary effect between industrial agglomeration and real estate prices.Population mobility has a significant partial intermediate effect on manufacturing agglomeration and real estate prices.At the same time,school-age workers and high-quality floating population mainly flow to secondary cities,increasing local housing demand,thus promoting the rise of house prices.Population mobility has a significant partial intermediary effect on real estate agglomeration and real estate price.At the same time,the real estate industry is mainly concentrated in the development of class I and class II cities.There are heterogeneous differences in the intermediary effects of the two types of industrial agglomeration.Finally,on the basis of theoretical and empirical research,this thesis puts forward some policy suggestions: promote the balanced and coordinated development of industries in different regions of the Pearl River Delta,and narrow the gap between economic development,industrial agglomeration and commercial housing prices.Second,pay attention to the impact of population mobility on commercial housing prices in the Pearl River Delta,take different forms to solve housing difficulties,and build a housing security system to meet the needs of the floating population.Finally,accelerate the process of urbanization in the Pearl River Delta and implement the new urbanization development strategy. |
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