Study On The Influence Of Population Aging On Household Saving Rate

Since reform and opening up,China’s economic development has been rapid,largely benefiting from active labor population and high savings rate in our country,which has injected cheap labor force into the economic development.Savings is not only closely related to people’s life,but also plays a great role in the development of national economy.As China enters the aging society,there has been a certain decline in the savings rate,and the long-term high savings rate has been affected significantly.Under the background of increasing aging,studying the direction and influence of population factors on Chinese residents’ savings rate can help reduce the negative effect of aging on our savings ratOn the basis of existing academic research,this paper analyzes and empirically tests the impact of population aging on household savings rate.Firstly,the basic concepts and theories of population and savings are expounded.Secondly,it describes the current situation of population aging and household saving rate respectively.Finally by using 2000-2020 provincial panel data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions constructed static panel model,considering the dynamic effects of residents’ savings behavior and economic variables that may exist between the endogenous problems caused by the mutual influence,on the basis of the introduction of household saving lag period,using the dynamic panel system GMM estimation,In order to further verify the nonlinear relationship between the change of population age structure caused by population aging and household saving rate,the panel threshold model was used to further investigate.According to the Chinese situation,there may be spatial correlation between resident savings rate in neighboring provinces and cities,and it is necessary to consider the spatial factor in the study of resident savings rate,so the effect of population factors and resident savings rate is estimated more accurately by the spatial measurement method based on the consideration of the spatial effect of resident savings rate.The results show that:(1)Population aging in China has the spatial pattern of time variation trend and spatial degree difference,which is obvious;(2)In the dynamic panel model,we consider the household saving rate of one lag period,and the results show that the household saving rate of one lag period has a significant dynamic effect on the household saving rate of the current period.The saving behavior of the residents in the previous year will affect the amount of savings in the next year.(3)The proportion of children has a significant positive impact on household saving rate,which is contrary to the expected result of the life cycle.The increase of working-age population will promote the growth of household saving rate,while the proportion of the elderly has a significant negative correlation with it,which is consistent with the life cycle hypothesis.(4)Longer life expectancy will significantly increase household saving rate;(5)Among other related variables affecting savings rate,the regression result of inflation rate on household savings rate is negative,the increase of per capita income on household savings rate is significantly positive,the regression coefficient of urbanization rate on household savings rate is negative,and the regression result of government financial support ability on household savings rate is significantly positive.The regression coefficient of endowment insurance coverage rate on household saving rate is significantly positive at 1%level.The regression results of pension coverage and usually think pension coverage to improve the residents’ savings down expectations of a discrepancy,may be due to China’s current pension investment income is not stable,pension policy is imperfect,pensions and pension coverage of the standard is not clear to residents in order to prevent their own retirement savings motive of reinforcement;(6)According to the results of the panel threshold model,when per capita income is taken as the threshold variable,the negative impact of the increase of the proportion of elderly population on the household saving rate is weakened at a higher level of income.When the government’s financial support capacity is taken as the threshold variable,the stronger the government’s ability to bear the burden of supporting the employed,the weaker the inhibitory effect of aging on the household savings rate.(7)From the spatial perspective,the savings rate of Chinese residents shows significant spatial positive autocorrelation.Considering the spatial effect,the proportion of children has no obvious positive correlation with the household saving rate,while the proportion of working population has a significant positive promoting effect,and the proportion of the elderly has a significant negative inhibiting effect.In view of the research conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions in five aspects:developing pension enterprises,encouraging the re-employment of the elderly,improving the social pension security system,cultivating new business forms,and improving residents’ consumer confidence,in order to guide the aging population to play a positive role in adjusting the household savings rate to a reasonable range and promoting the healthy development of the economy.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:First,in the factors affecting the resident savings rate,the government fiscal expenditure and the number of employed people are introduced to measure the financial expenditure borne by each employed group from the perspective of financial commitment,which can effectively make up for the pressure brought by simply relying on the proportion of the elderly to measure the aging population;Second,the current research mainly adopts the traditional panel data model.Due to the large gap in economic development in different regions,there will be differences in income level and government financial support ability,etc.Therefore,based on the panel threshold model,the nonlinear relationship between the population age structure and resident savings rate is investigated.Third,the current research regards the household savings rate of each province as an independent individual space,ignoring the spatial correlation of household savings rate.In this paper,considering the spatial effect of household savings rate,the SEM model is adopted to accurately estimate the effect of population aging on household savings rate by incorporating spatial factors.