Study On Population Change And Agricultural Technology Progress In Shandong Province Since 1978

Since 1978,with the implementation of household contract responsibility system,agricultural production in Shandong province has developed in an all-round way,and the optimization and adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and the change of organizational system have been widely concerned.However,the current focus is still on development itself,and the progress of agricultural technology behind it is not enough.In addition,the existing research views on the impetus of agricultural technological progress are limited to two dimensions of internal and external impetus,such as market and government,which cannot fully explain why there is no same or similar agricultural technological progress path as Shandong in the whole country.Therefore,this study attempts to explore other influencing factors behind the agricultural technological progress in Shandong Province.Inspired by Boserup’s view that the pressure of population growth promotes agricultural economic growth,this paper considers whether the agricultural technological progress in Shandong province since 1978 is related to its population change.In shandong province to verify the pressure of population growth on the one hand can be used to interpret the significant achievements made since 1978,the agricultural technology progress,in addition to the growth of population,on the other hand inquiry whether there are other factors such as population structure to the agricultural technology progress,also to explain the relationship between population change and the agricultural technology progress.Focusing on the two dimensions of agricultural technological progress and population change,this paper carries out research from three aspects.First,it combs the process of agricultural development and agricultural technological progress in Shandong since 1978,and finds that the total agricultural output value increases significantly,the industrial structure is optimized and adjusted,and the agricultural industrialization develops rapidly.Agricultural technological progress is manifested in the improvement of land productivity and labor productivity as well as the cultivation of superior varieties and the improvement of agricultural product quality.Secondly,it summarizes the population changes in Shandong province since 1978,and finds that the total population increased rapidly before1990,and then slowed down significantly.The process of aging,urbanization and nonagriculture has accelerated,and the quality of the population has generally improved.Thirdly,the univariate and multivariate regression models of population change and agricultural technological progress were established by Stata software with econometric method,and the contribution of each population factor to agricultural technological progress was calculated respectively.From the perspective of population change and agricultural technology progress in Shandong province since 1978,the pressure of population growth promoted agricultural technology progress and improved land productivity.Aging population has a double-sided effect on agricultural production and technological progress.Non-agricultural population and urbanization can promote agricultural technological progress through improving labor productivity.The general improvement of the quality of the population is also a powerful impetus for the progress of agricultural technology.This study not only verified that the theory of population growth promoting agricultural technological progress in Boserup can explain the remarkable agricultural technological progress in Shandong province since 1978,but also found the force of the change of population structure on agricultural technological progress,and enriched and developed the relationship between population change and agricultural technological progress.Based on this,this paper tries to put forward the prospect of agricultural development in Shandong Province from the perspective of population change.