A Statistical Study On The Influence Mechanism Of The New Population Dividend On Total Factor Productivity

Since the 21st century,China’s population aging problem has gradually emerged,and population problems are also emerging in endlessly.Therefore,China has also issued policies such as "Three child policy" and "Double reduction policy" to solve population problems and achieve sustainable and high-quality economic development.The concept of population dividend is also evolving and upgrading with the development of society.The demographic dividend promoted to economy is no longer the traditional demographic dividend,but a new demographic dividend with both quantity and quality characteristics.Therefore,the study of the impact mechanism of the new demographic dividend on total factor productivity can provide a certain reference for policy formulation for the overall realization of the long-term positive demographic change and the overall good impact on all sectors of economic operation and social construction.In terms of theoretical review,starting from the concepts of the new demographic dividend and total factor productivity,this paper focuses on the concept expansion of the new demographic dividend,from the quantitative demographic dividend to the qualitative focus,and reviews the research status of the impact of the new demographic dividend on total factor productivity.Next,the paper introduces the population transition theory and the theoretical research on the mechanism of the new demographic dividend on total factor productivity.Then statistical measures are carried out on the research object of this paper.A new index system of demographic dividend was established by combing and summarizing the literature,so as to calculate the new demographic dividend from two dimensions of quantity and quality using entropy method,and the total factor productivity was calculated using DEA method.The data were panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2020.The third part is an empirical analysis of the direct impact of the new demographic dividend on the total factor productivity by using the two-way fixed effect model.The results show that the new demographic dividend is conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity.From the perspective of different dimensions,both the population quantity dividend and the population quality dividend can promote the improvement of total factor productivity,and the population quality dividend has a more obvious impact on the improvement of TFP.On this basis,the mediating effect model was constructed by using GMM estimation,and the mechanism of the influence of the new demographic dividend on the total factor productivity was empirically analyzed through the two mediating variables of industrial structure upgrading and technology upgrading,and then the regional heterogeneity was analyzed according to the degree of economic development.The results show that the new demographic dividend can promote the improvement and development of total factor productivity by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and technological innovation.The mediating effect of population quality dividend is also valid,while the population quantity dividend does not show significant mediating effect.The reliability of this result is also verified by heterogeneity analysis.The new demographic dividend in each region has a significant mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation.The mediating effect of population quantity dividend is not obvious in economically developed areas and generally developed areas,and the effect of population quality dividend is not significant in economically underdeveloped areas.