| 2021,"Overview of the Development of the Elderly Industry in the Yangtze River Delta Region" points out that in the seventh population census,the proportion of the population over 60 years old in the Yangtze River Delta region exceeded 20% of the total population.The Yangtze River Delta region has officially entered the stage of moderate population aging.The Yangtze River Delta region is located at the intersection of rivers and seas,with well-developed transportation and a strong industrialization foundation.Its economic development level has always been at the forefront of China.The aging population in the Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by a large number of elderly population,a high proportion of elderly population and a rapid growth rate of low-aged elderly population,reflecting the profound status of the aging society in the Yangtze River Delta region.As the backbone of China’s economic development,the Yangtze River Delta region undertakes the important task of promoting industrial structure upgrading,advancing economic structure optimization and achieving high-quality economic development.Technological innovation is an important condition and driving mechanism for the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.The Yangtze River Delta region has a serious situation of aging population.It is also in the critical period of industrial structure transformation and upgrading.In the context of population aging and the implementation of innovation-driven strategy,the study of the relationship between population aging,technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading in the Yangtze River Delta region is of great significance to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of regional economy and realize the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.This thesis uses panel data of 26 urban clusters in the Yangtze River Delta region from2010 to 2020.First of all,constructs a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model to study the direct effect of population aging and technological innovation on industrial structure upgrading in the Yangtze River Delta region,and then constructs a mediating effect model to study the indirect effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading through technological innovation.The results of the impulse response analysis show that both population aging and technological innovation have significant positive effects on industrial structure upgrading,and population aging also shows the promotion effect on technological innovation.In the study of the relationship between population aging and technological innovation,it is found that population aging has a catalytic effect on technological innovation,and it is speculated that population aging may have an impact on industrial structure upgrading through technological innovation,so a mediating effect model is constructed for further study.The results of the mediating effect analysis show that technological innovation does play a mediating role in the influence path of population aging on industrial structure upgrading,and population aging can either directly affect industrial structure upgrading or indirectly promote industrial structure upgrading by promoting technological innovation.The empirical results show that population aging and technological innovation directly promote industrial structure upgrading,and population aging also indirectly promotes industrial structure upgrading through technological innovation.Finally,based on the empirical results,this thesis puts forward practical policy suggestions for the current situation of population aging and technological innovation capacity development in the Yangtze River Delta region. |
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