Research On The Evolution And Guidance Strategy Of Network Group Polarization Under Emergencies

With the development of media technology in China and the changes in the media pattern,the expression of public opinions in the era of intelligent media has taken on a new form,and frequently affects the communication environment of major social media.Intelligence,connectivity and collaboration have become the biggest social variables at present,and online freedom discussion on the one hand provides the possibility of technological empowerment for the public,on the other hand,it also brings new challenges to the network environment that currently does not have a complete regulatory mechanism^[1].Therefore,in the process of"guidance"and"response"cycle,the public opinion field may therefore move towards peace,and may also appear tense or even polarized,so clarifying what trends are shown in the interaction of people’s views under major risk events and how to crack the bad trend through external intervention can provide a reliable basis for current managers to improve their management capabilities,amplify the effect of agenda setting,and carry out effective social pacification.The whole paper uses persuasion theory and sharp point mutation theory to optimize the traditional H-K model from the aspects of interaction rules and point update rules,and proposes that"point mutation"is a new way to solve group polarization,among which the two indicators of"individual interest"and"credibility of views"from persuasion theory act as internal factors and external factors respectively,and the combination of the two controls the occurrence of mutations.Based on the above ideas,this paper constructs an ICI model,and takes indicators related to interaction rules（initial opinion distribution,trust threshold,individual interest）and update rules（opinion credibility）as influencing factors to study their influence on the evolution speed and evolution results of network group polarization under emergencies.It is found that narrow initial view,large trust threshold,strong individual interest and opinion credibility will accelerate the polarization process,but the role of these single factors only affects the speed of polarization,so it can be used to alleviate polarization,and a"+4 polarization mitigation strategy"is proposed accordingly.Based on these effects,this paper further proposes the"cracking direction"network group polarization guidance strategy,and verifies the feasibility of the strategy through evolutionary simulation,which provides reliable suggestions for network public opinion viewing under emergencies.