Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure On Housing Demand

Housing is the need of the people,and the housing market is an important cornerstone of economic stability.After the housing market-oriented reform,the real estate industry has become an important industry to measure the core competitiveness of the national economy.The rising housing prices and housing demand are directly related to the well-being of residents.As the backbone power source affecting economic development,it has become very important to explore the factors affecting housing demand.At the same time,there has been a major change in China’s population structure.The latest census results show that by 2020,China’s elderly population over the age of 65 will have reached 190 million,accounting for 13.5% of the total population;On the other hand,the total fertility rate of fertile women in China is only 1.3,which is at the national level of ultra-low fertility.The gradual relaxation of the two-child fertility policy has limited impact on fertility,and the birth rate has been at a low level for a long time.After the pressure on the total population has subsided,new challenges to the structural transformation of the population have emerged,and the population form is not optimistic.From the perspective of the age structure of the newly increased population and the change of the proportion of the aged population,this paper summarizes the relevant research results on the population structure and housing demand at home and abroad,and constructs the transmission mechanism analysis of the impact of the age structure of the population on China’s housing demand based on the population transformation theory,life cycle consumption theory,real estate supply and demand theory and intergenerational transfer theory,and then combines the current population aging And the current situation of housing demand.Based on the inter provincial panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2002 to 2019,this paper empirically investigates the relationship between population age structure and housing demand by using fixed effect model,random effect model and dynamic panel model.This study finds that the impact of birth rate and aging rate on housing demand is positive at the national level.In this paper,a dynamic panel is formed by introducing the housing demand that lags behind the first period.The endogenous of the empirical results is tested with the help of the System GMM model.The test results are basically consistent with the benchmark regression results,and the housing demand has a positive time effect.Then different methods are used to test the robustness,and the empirical results are robust.In addition,it also carried out a regional empirical test and Analysis on the impact of population age structure on China’s housing demand,and further explored the differences in the impact of inter regional population change on housing demand by using PCSE method.The results show that except that the impact of the aging rate on housing demand in the eastern region is not significant,the impact direction of birth rate and aging rate on housing demand in other regions is consistent with that at the national level,which is a significant positive impact.In order to better cope with the severe new situation of China’s population development and stabilize the housing demand,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: improve the social pension services to meet the housing needs for the elderly;Strengthen the supporting support for childbirth and promote the growth of newborn population;We will strengthen policy control of the housing market and improve the housing security system.