Study On The Pattern And Influencing Factors Of County Population Shrinkage In Northeast China

As the economy has stepped into the "new normal",China has entered a critical period of deep integration of urban and rural areas and high-quality development.Counties are important regional Spaces for high-quality economic development,which is of great significance for promoting the sustainable and healthy development of new urbanization with Chinese characteristics.According to the data of the seventh census,the registered population in counties is close to 891 million,while the permanent population is only 745 million.The net outflow of population in China’s counties is close to 146 million,which further confirms the population shrinkage in counties.In the future county development space under the background of the county is facing the severe test of population shrinkage.Therefore,urbanization construction with county area as an important carrier has become a key strategy to continuously promote the level and quality of urbanization,promote the whole area of rural revitalization and urban-rural integrated development.As a typical region of population shrinkage,the county population shrinkage in Northeast China is more serious.Therefore,it is of important theoretical value and practical significance to study the pattern and influencing factors of the county population shrinkage.Based on the existing research results of population shrinkage,this paper divides the population shrinkage degree of Northeast China’s counties according to the six and seven permanent population data,analyzes its spatial distribution pattern and characteristics,and divides the functional types and urban-rural differentiation types of Northeast China’s population shrinkage counties based on the dominant and characteristic principles,so as to better analyze the factors affecting the population shrinkage of counties.Finally,by constructing the evaluation index system of county population shrinkage in Northeast China,the multi-scale geographical weighted regression analysis model was used to study the factors affecting county population shrinkage in Northeast China from the overall and local dimensions.The main findings are as follows:(1)The county population in Northeast China is shrinking deeper and expanding.The number of shrinking counties accounted for 97.7%,and the shrinking degree of county population showed a spatial trend of "deepening first and then weakening" from south to north.In terms of time distribution,the county population shrinkage in Northeast China has deepened continuously in the past 20 years,and the scale of population shrinkage has expanded obviously,which has the characteristics of continuity.The age composition of population shrinkage showed a "youth type".The average age of the population lost in counties was 33.65 years old,mainly between 15 and 59 years old,accounting for 85.98% of the population lost.The shrinking counties showed obvious regional agglomeration phenomenon,forming a spatial combination of "one district,two belts and three cores".(2)County population shrinkage brings many effects to regional social and economic development,including the population center of gravity moving to the southwest,deepening aging and increasing social burden,weak economic and consumption growth,idle housing and low utilization efficiency of public facilities,and urban spatial structure fragmentation.(3)From the perspective of influencing factors of county population shrinkage,the main influencing factors of county population shrinkage in Northeast China are economic development,age structure,public services,etc.MGWR results show that economic factors are the main factors affecting population shrinkage in Northeast counties,including urban and rural residents’ income level,county economic development level,city economic development level,talent reserve,industrialization level,industrial structure,etc.The provincial economic development level and the proportion of the elderly population had a weak effect on the population shrinkage of Northeast counties.Except for the level of public finance,the level of county economic development and the level of provincial economic development,the other variables showed a negative effect.In addition,there are significant spatial differences in the effects of the income level of urban and rural residents,the economic development level of the city and the income level of the industrial structure on the county population shrinkage.The factors affecting population shrinkage in different shrinkage counties are also different.According to the classification of urban and rural types,the population change of shrinking counties is mainly rural population shrinking,most of which are "city reducing township reducing type" counties.The model of "city reducing township reducing type" counties has a high degree of fitting.The proportion of teenagers is the main factor affecting the population shrinking of this type of counties,followed by the proportion of elderly population.The fitting degree of the county model of "urban increase and rural decrease" is low.Only the talent reserve level and the income level of urban and rural residents show significant performance,and both show negative mechanism.According to the function type,the proportion of the aged population is an important reason for the population shrinkage in the counties with mineral resource shrinkage.Talent reserve level has significant effect on population shrinkage in processing shrinking counties.In contrast,the proportion of teenagers in agriculture-type shrinking counties and tourism-type shrinking counties has a significant negative effect on population shrinking.(4)Different counties have different problems and development directions.According to the characteristics of different types of counties,differentiated development is adopted.Considering the functional types and shrinking conditions of counties,differentiated guidance should be given to shrinking counties with different functional types,so as to encourage the development of "urban growth" counties and guide the shrewd shrinkage of "urban reduction and rural reduction" counties.In addition,in the face of county shrinkage,we should grasp the key points of regulation and control,adopt the idea of shrewd shrinkage,and deal with the dilemma of county population shrinkage by promoting new industrialization,implementing new urbanization strategy and guiding reasonable population flow.