The Estimated Research And Comparative Analysis Of The Effect Of Education On Poverty Reduction

Below the current poverty line,China has entered the "post-poverty alleviation era" after the elimination of absolute poverty.And the object of poverty alleviation has realized the transformation from absolute poverty to relative poverty.Based on the household tracking survey data(CFPS2018),this paper combines the education participation equation with the relative poverty risk equation,and uses the recursive simultaneous equation model to estimate and compare the impact of non-academic education and academic education on the probability of falling into relative poverty and poverty reduction effect in rural households.The results show that: firstly,both non-academic education and academic education can effectively prevent rural households from falling into relative poverty and lower the risk of falling into relative poverty.The probability of falling into relative poverty in sampling households with non-academic education is 0.478 lower than that without relevant education in the "counterfactual" state,which is statistically significant.However,for the sampling families receiving academic education,the probability of falling into the relative poverty gradually decreases with the increase of their educational level.Secondly,non-academic education can make up for the lack of academic education to a certain extent.Finally,there are heterogeneity in region,urban-rural and individual in the policy effects of non-academic education and academic education.On the basis of controlling other conditions unchanged,the poverty reduction effects of non-academic education and academic education at different levels under sub-samples are calculated by matching the corresponding relative poverty standards.The poverty reduction effect in the central region is lower than that in the eastern and western regions,and the poverty reduction effect in the rural areas is lower than that in the urban areas.At the same time,the policy effect of education changes U-shaped with the probability of the sample being included in the relative poverty range,which has limited effect on the families with higher vulnerability risk.Compared with the existing research,this paper may improve the structural estimation method of a policy evaluation model with discrete dependent variables,and provide a way of testing the comparability between the policy effects of non-academic education and academic education.The conclusions have certain practical significance in the formulation of policy targeting at short-term non-academic education for farmers to make up for the lack of academic education,and effective implementation of policies for regions with different development levels to achieve common prosperity.