Research On The Financial Burden Of Basic Endowment Insurance For Urban Workers Based On Population Structure

With the change of population structure in our country,the imbalance of income and expenditure of basic endowment insurance fund of urban workers tends to enlarge the risk,and the problem of population structure challenges the ability of pension payment,and then aggravate the financial pressure of government subsidy pension.From the angle of population structure,this paper focuses on the age structure of population,studies the impact of population structure and its changes on the financial burden of basic endowment insurance for urban workers,and puts forward some feasible suggestions to reduce the financial burden,in order to ensure the sustainability of income and expenditure operation of basic endowment insurance for urban workers,avoid serious financial burden and social burden.First of all,combing our country’s population structure and the financial burden of basic endowment insurance for urban workers,it is concluded that the population structure of our country has the problems of the aggravation of the aging trend,the continuous growth of the retired population,the imbalance of the sex ratio between men and women,and the insufficient years of education per capita,these population structural contradictions will aggravate the trend that the basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers can not meet its income and expenditure.The basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers has the risk of a widening gap,and the problem of fund income and expenditure varies greatly among localities,the distribution of basic endowment insurance funds is unbalanced throughout the country,and the funds have not been optimally used nationwide.The financial subsidies for“Covering the bottom” of basic endowment insurance have been increasing year after year,increase the financial burden of risk.Secondly,the paper uses GMM to analyze the linear influence of three dimensions of population structure on the financial burden of basic endowment insurance of urban workers,the results show that the dependency ratio of elderly population has a significant positive impact on the financial burden,the gender ratio has a significant negative impact,and per capita years of education has a significant negative impact.The panel threshold model is used to further explore the non-linear effect of population age structure on financial burden,and the threshold effect shows that there is a double threshold with fiscal income as the threshold variable,the negative effect of child dependency ratio on the financial burden will gradually decrease with the increase of financial income,while the influence of the dependency ratio of elderly population on the financial burden presents a positive but gradual“Inverted L” relationship,to build a model of collecting income and fund expenditure of basic endowment insurance pension for urban workers,and to measure the gap between income and expenditure of future fund,so as to predict the financial pressure caused by the future financial backstopping subsidy fund,through the forecast future system support rate and the financial burden rate overall evaluation future financial burden.Then,combing the two foreign models of government responsibility for pension insurance,namely the fiscal responsibility model represented by Germany,and the fiscal responsibility-sharing model represented by Sweden,summing up the financial responsibility of each mode and the reform measures of our country can provide the experience for our country to relieve the financial pressure of endowment insurance.Finally,combined with the empirical conclusions and our country’s pecific conditions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations.First,improve the population policy and adjust the population structure.Second,optimize the financial expenditure and ensure the demand for funds.Third,strengthen the fund budget and improve the management system.Fourth,improve the pension system and implement the responsibilities of the central government.Fifth,expand the financing channels and make up the funding gap.Sixth,strengthen scientific management and improve investment income.