Research On The Value Assessment Of Semiconductor Enterprises Based On Price Research Ratios Method

Since the United States began to suppress China’s Semiconductor industry from point to surface in 2018,capital has gradually poured into the semiconductor industry.From October 2018 to August 2021,the semiconductor index rose by 218.52%,about6 times that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange index over the same period.At the same time of capital craziness,the market appeared the voice of doubt: has there been a foam? Some people think that many high valuation enterprises in the market have no performance as support;Some people believe that the trend of domestic substitution will release broad market dividends,and hesitation will lead to failure.So how to judge the valuation? After analyzing and comparing the mainstream absolute valuation method and relative valuation method,this paper finds that it is unsatisfactory in the application of valuation of high-tech enterprises such as semiconductors.Therefore,the author noticed that Fisher proposed the price research rate index in 1894,which links the enterprise value with research and development investment,and believes that this index can be used as a reference index to judge whether the valuation of the price-to-sales ratio is invalid.As a representative of high and new technology,the survival and development of semiconductor enterprises are based on innovation capabilities,and technology patents are their moats.Therefore,the value of the enterprise is ultimately determined by the research and development strength of the enterprise,so is the valuation index of the price research rate naturally applicable?In order to explore the above questions,this article combs through the relevant literature.First of all,we need to determine that the R&D of enterprises does have a positive role in promoting enterprise value,and Chinese and foreign scholars have given affirmative answers to this conclusion,in addition,some scholars have also obtained the conclusion that there is a lag in the promotion effect of R&D investment on enterprise value;Secondly,we combed through the literature of domestic scholars on the valuation methods of the semiconductor industry and high-tech enterprises,and found that scholars have different opinions on which method to use,but they all admit that semiconductor companies have unpredictable cash flow,and none of them has the characteristics of universality and growth that cannot be ignored for all stages of enterprise development;Finally,we combed through the relevant literature on the application of price research rates,although few people advocate this indicator as the main valuation method,but they all recognize it as a reference for mainstream valuation models.At the same time,we find that Zhao Yihao et al.proposed to revise the price-to-earnings ratio with reference to the revised price-earnings ratio,and introduced the R&D net profit rate as an intermediate variable between market capitalization and R&D investment,which provides a reference for the valuation of this paper.On the basis of referring to the previous research,we selected Silan Micro as a case company to explore the feasibility of applying price research rate in specific cases with a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.After clarifying that profitability is an important intermediate variable to participate in the impact path of R&D investment on the value of semiconductor enterprises,we select and construct the valuation model.We select the basic price research rate valuation model and Zhao Yihao’s revised price research rate model for comparative research;At the same time,in order to verify the conclusions of the "hysteresis" found by the predecessors,we add the lag research on the basis of the revised price research rate.In addition,one and two issues were selected for verification according to the research conclusions of each literature.The choice of comparable companies is very important to the valuation of the underlying company.Different company choices may even lead to opposite valuation results.Therefore,in order to be scientific and rigorous and avoid subjective bias in selection,this paper uses PCA to select comparable companies.After screening the market value scale and R&D investment proportion of the whole sample,starting from four capacity indicators and taking into account their size and R&D quality,a total of 13 evaluation criteria are selected as dependent variables for the comprehensive evaluation of enterprises.Based on these,a linear expression of five principal components is obtained,and a comprehensive evaluation model is established.Based on the difference of the comprehensive score of each company and considering the business scope,three comparable companies,Junzheng,Huarunwei and Zhenhua Technologies in Beijing,were finally selected and identified.The results show that,compared with P/E ratio and P/S ratio,the basic model of price research rate and the modified average model of price research rate have good applicability to the valuation of Sranville.The basic city research rate model is slightly overestimated.The revised average price research rate is slightly underestimated,and the deviation between them is basically the same.The revised average price research rate with a lag of one period is the best fit for the actual value and also tends to be underestimated.By applying the price research rate method to the exploration of semiconductor enterprise Silan Micro valuation,we draw the following conclusions: First,the price research rate method is more effective for the valuation of semiconductor enterprises;Second,considering the influence of lagging factors,it seems that the value of the enterprise can be estimated more accurately;Third,when the enterprise loses money,the correction of the price research rate will be invalid;Fourth,the revised price research rate tends to underestimate the value of enterprises.In this regard,this paper gives corresponding suggestions and puts forward extended thinking.