Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Residents' Consumption Based On Panel Threshold Regressio

In 2021,during the NPC and the CPPCC,Xi Jinping pointed out that in the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China will enter a moderate aging stage.So actively responding to the population aging has become a national strategy.After the 7th national census,census data show that the aging process in China is accelerating significantly,and the peak of aging will come around 2030.Population aging will lead to changes in the scale and consumption structure of final consumption,which will reflect the elderly people’s consumption habits,preferences,and consumption capacity.It will also directly lead to the transformation of domestic market demand,then bring opportunities for economic development.Under the background of increasing population aging,it is of great significance to study the influence of population aging on the consumption capacity and consumption structure of Chinese residents.Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the impact of population aging on residents’ consumption from the perspective of econometrics,and obtained many valuable and referential results.However,from the perspective of statistics,scholars have not done much research on this issue.This paper studies the influence of population aging on residents’ consumption from the perspective of econometrics and statistics.Based on the life cycle hypothesis,this paper analyzes the impact from both qualitative and quantitative aspects.Firstly,descriptive statistical analysis is made on the current population aging and residents’ consumption.Then,panel data of Beijing,Jiangsu,Fujian,Jiangxi,and Henan from 2004 to 2020 are used to construct the panel threshold regression model,which takes the final consumption rate of residents as the threshold variable and take the depth of aging,elderly population ratio and elderly dependency ratio as core explanatory variables.And the parameters of the model after threshold regression division are interpreted to understand the impact of population aging on residents’consumption under different consumption structure environments.By comparing the results of panel threshold regression with the results of quantile regression,we can explore the relationship between population aging and residents’ consumption.Through empirical analysis,this paper concluded the following conclusions.Firstly,the optimization of the consumption structure environment will enhance the promotion effect of population aging on residents’ consumption.Second,the aging of the population in the group with the high living standards will significantly promote the consumption of residents.In a word,we should actively cope with the aging population,not only to build and perfect the pension service system construction,but also to timely adjust the family planning policy to maintain stable and sustainable growth in the population.Through the above measures,we can turn the aging problem into a new driving force,to expand domestic consumption and strengthen the autonomy of economic growth.In this way,we can get a good start for China’s 14th Five-year plan,and ensure high-quality development of the Chinese economy.