Research On Valuation Methods Of My Country's Semiconductor Industr

The third industrial Revolution brought about a great leap in computer information technology,and at the same time gave birth to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry.Developed countries in Europe and the United States are leading the development process of the semiconductor industry.If China wants to gain advantages in the future international competition,it is very important for China to develop and improve its independent semiconductor industry chain.With the impact of the us-China trade war and the co VID-19 pandemic,the need for chips to be made locally is growing.However,the semiconductor industry is a high-risk industry with large investment in research and development,high industry barriers and unstable profitability.The Internet bubble occurred in the United States in 1999 is still vivid in our mind,and the influx of a large amount of hot money may cause false prosperity in the industry.Therefore,the research on the valuation of domestic semiconductor manufacturers has practical significance.Understanding the reasonable valuation of semiconductor companies can help guide capital investment and promote the healthy development of domestic semiconductor industry.In this paper,firstly,some existing enterprise valuation theories at home and abroad are sorted out and summarized,and the development status and characteristics of the semiconductor industry are deeply studied.Through qualitative analysis,several theoretical methods suitable for the semiconductor industry valuation are screened out.Secondly,through empirical analysis,this paper compares the change in the share price of semiconductor manufacturing enterprises listed in A-share with the correlation between economic value added EVA and free cash flow of firm FCFF,and concludes that the change in EVA has A strong correlation with the change in the share price.It is concluded that EVA model is more effective than DCF model in the valuation of semiconductor companies.At the same time,the stability of relative valuation indexes such as P/E,P/S and P/B in semiconductor manufacturing enterprises was compared.By comparing the variation coefficient of each index in the semiconductor firms,P/S and P/B were selected as the relative valuation indexes more suitable for semiconductor industry companies.Finally,this paper choose the leading enterprises in the domestic semiconductor wafer processing,SMIC case analysis,according to three different case scenarios to predict the future cash flow of the enterprise,and uses the DCF model and EVA model to estimate SMIC concluded three different situations,EVA valuation of the model is more reasonable,EVA model than DCF model is more suitable for semiconductor companies valuation.Through the empirical comparison and case study of these valuation methods,the final conclusion is that EVA model,P/S and P/B indicators are more in line with the characteristics of companies in the semiconductor industry,and can help users understand the real value of target companies more effectively.