Research On The Predictive Effects Of ICT Industry Fiscal And Tax Incentives To Economy Based On The CGE Model

Information and communication technology,full name is Information and Communication Technology(ICT)has the characteristics of high added value and high returns.The represented technology of information industry such as The Mobile Internet,The Internet of Things,Cloud Computing and Big Data has risen rapidly,while meeting people’s ever-changing needs,it has increasingly become an important driving force for China’s economic growth,which plays an important role in guiding China’s economy from "investment-driven" to "technology-driven".However,China’s ICT industry still has a certain gap with the advanced international ICT technology,this gap not only reflects in the high-end chips,lithography machines and other preface high-end technology equipment research and equipment manufacturing,but also reflects in the degree of integration of ICT technology with other industries.Based on the capital and talent characteristics of the ICT industry,the government has implemented a series of fiscal and tax incentive policies.There is no doubt that these policies will improve the level of China’s ICT industry,but how effective the national preferential policies are? How is it promoting the ICT industry? What is the driving effect on the relevant industries and economy as a whole and the welfare of residents? This range of problems currently lacks a proven tool to measure in academia.In this paper,the literature related to the topic selection is carefully sorted out and summarized,and the research on the ICT industry,the relationship between the ICT industry and economic growth.Further,this paper collates the economic data of the ICT hardware and software industry in China and major countries in the world,analyzes the current situation and existing problems of China’s ICT industry,collated and studied the fiscal and taxation support policies proposed by China for the ICT industry in recent years,using the economic theory analyzed the theoretical mechanism of fiscal and taxation policies to promote the increase of investment in the ICT industry,and the impact of fiscal and tax preferential policies and incentive policies on related industries,socio-economic levels and residents’ welfare after the implementation of fiscal and tax incentive policies for the ICT industry.Based on this,this paper proposed the research hypothesis.To verify the hypothesis in this paper,this paper establishes a computable general equilibrium model of the ICT industry,thereby promoting the development of other related industries,social and economic improvement and the welfare of residents.This paper first compiles the 2017 China Social Accounting Matrix based on the data of China’s 2017 Input-Output Table,and combined with the data of the2018 China Statistical Yearbook,the China Financial Yearbook,the China Fiscal Yearbook and the China Tax Yearbook.And constructed a computable General Equilibrium Model on the basis of this social accounting matrix.According to the current situation of China’s fiscal and taxation policy support for the ICT industry,this paper set five impact scenarios,for fiscal policy,this paper assumes that two fiscal policies are implemented at the same time: the pre-incentive and post-event incentive policies of fiscal policy.For tax policy,this paper sets a combination of two tax incentives of consumption tax and production tax,and combines different ranges of fiscal incentives and tax preferential policies to form a combination of five policy impacts of fiscal incentive policies and tax preferential policies.Research conclusions:(1)Regardless of tax incentives or government subsidies,as the intensity of fiscal and tax preferential policies continues increase,the impact on the ICT industry is increasing,and it is found that the role of government financial subsidy policies is greater than that of tax incentives,and fiscal and tax preferential policies are conducive to the optimization of ICT industrial structure.(2)The development of the ICT industry has a positive spillover effect,and the tax incentives for the ICT industry promote the development of the financial industry,transportation and warehousing and postal industry and consumer goods manufacturing industry.(3)The fiscal and taxation policy for the ICT industry has increased China’s GDP,CPI,import and export quantity,and the consumption level of urban and rural residents to varying degrees.The main contributions of this paper:(1)On the basis of systematically sorting out the research status,policy status,and development level of the ICT industry,the theoretical mechanism of government policies on promoting the development of the ICT technology is analyzed.(2)This constructed a social accounting matrix and computable general equilibrium model of the ICT industry,which provides a feasible policy tool for the follow-up relevant study.(3)Based on the CGE model,policy simulations were carried out under different scenarios,which verified the general law of the impact of fiscal incentives and tax preferential policies on the ICT industry,other industries,social and economic aggregates and residents’ welfare,and provided data support for the government to formulate fiscal and tax policies for the ICT industry.(4)Based on the research conclusions of this paper,a series of policy suggestions on promoting the development of China’s ICT industry are proposed,which provides some reference for the formulation of relevant policies.