Value Evaluation Of Semiconductor Enterprises Based On Improved B-S Model

In recent years,affected by the trade war between China and the United States,European and American countries have imposed comprehensive sanctions and pressure on China’s semiconductor industry,and China’s semiconductor industry is facing severe risks and challenges.However,opportunities and challenges coexist,China’s semiconductor industry is facing a strong external crisis,but also burst out of new vitality.Since the trade war between China and the United States,the Chinese government has promulgated and implemented a series of positive policies to promote the development of China’s semiconductor industry.The number and scale of the domestic semiconductor industry have risen rapidly,and the listing demand of semiconductor enterprises has also increased rapidly.In addition,plus the establishment of the science and technology innovation board in 2018 and the trial registration system to make the listing process of many domestic semiconductor enterprises become more efficient and rapid.Because semiconductor enterprises belong to the category of high-tech enterprises,with the characteristics of high capital demand,high research and development risk,strong cyclical characteristics,so raising the company’s working capital and project research and development funds has become the primary choice of many semiconductor enterprises.The large number of listed semiconductor companies have brought more investment opportunities to the semiconductor industry and quickly attracted the attention of the majority of investors,which has also brought new demand for the valuation of semiconductor companies.Through the valuation research of semiconductor enterprises,the overall value of enterprises can be considered more comprehensively,so as to reduce the information asymmetry between investors and semiconductor enterprises,help investors to make reasonable investment decisions,and reduce unnecessary economic losses for investors.In addition,the research on the value evaluation of semiconductor enterprises can also help the CSRC and other regulatory organs to better determine the business situation and the overall asset status of the enterprises.However,at present,the domestic evaluation circle has little value evaluation research on semiconductor enterprises on the science and technology innovation board,and the related enterprise value evaluation system is not perfect.The research on the value evaluation of semiconductor enterprises is mostly limited to the traditional evaluation methods,and the valuation method has not been explored.Therefore,further research on the value evaluation of semiconductor enterprises is crucial.Based on the research of scholars at home and abroad,this paper first analyzes the characteristics of the semiconductor industry,points out that the overall value of semiconductor enterprises is composed of the value created by existing assets and the potential value brought by R & D investment projects,and selects the method suitable for the value evaluation of semiconductor enterprises.Second,to the case enterprise life cycle judgment,by judging the results of two stages of free cash flow discount(FCFF)model and the physical option method in the traditional physical option pricing(B-S)model respectively estimate the value of enterprise existing assets creation and the potential value of research and development projects,get the preliminary evaluation results.Again,for the B-S physical options model enterprise stock price volatility parameter σ measurement method for innovation,different from the traditional B-S model often used expert scoring method and return on assets method,this paper uses random volatility(SV)model to measure the volatility parameter,not only can reduce the subjective effect of the traditional volatility parameter measurement,but also can get the case enterprise in a more accurate dynamic volatility parameter in a period of time dimension.After the volatility parameters are determined,it is replaced into the improved B-S model to evaluate the new enterprise potential value.Finally,the two obtained evaluation results are compared with the enterprise market value on the evaluation base date to verify the rationality of the improved B-S model.