The Effects Of Media Sentiment On Listed Companies’ Performance Forecast

With the maturity and improvement of financial enterprise supervision system,the information disclosure behavior of enterprises is becoming more and more standardized.However,"face-changing" events still occur frequently,and the quality of performance forecast disclosure information is not good.Therefore,scholars have studied the influencing factors of performance forecast quality from many aspects.Taking advantage of the development of Technique,this paper has explored a new influencing factor: media sentiment.Technology based on Deep Learning,the media news text is learned and trained to obtain a quantifiable sentiment index.This paper probes the effect of media sentiment on the quality of performance forecast,utilizing media sentiment index as the research object.Based on earnings manipulation theory and emotional rendering theory,this paper studies the influence of media sentiment on the behavior of management,specifically the control of performance forecast quality.In order to explore the influence of media text content on the willingness of corporate management to issue performance forecasts,this paper first regresses whether there is media coverage and the number of reports.The results show that enterprises not subject to media attention are more inclined to issue performance forecasts,and among those receiving attention,the higher the attention,the more willing the management is to issue performance forecasts.The empirical results show that media sentiment has a significant negative effect on performance forecast,that is,negative media sentiment can achieve external governance effect and improve performance forecast quality.This paper uses accuracy,deviation and timeliness as three indicators of performance forecast quality.The regression results of accuracy and deviation are consistent,while media sentiment has a significant positive effect on timeliness of performance forecast,that is,the more negative the media sentiment,the more reluctant the management is to issue performance forecasts.After adding the influence factors of institutional investor proportion and whether equity incentive plan is implemented,it is found that institutional investors have a significant negative regulation effect on this effect,that is,the higher the proportion of institutional investors in the enterprise,the more cautious the decision-making of the management,so the influence of public opinion on the decision-making of the management is smaller.This paper also divides the data sample according to corporate characteristics,industry and environmental characteristics,and the experimental results demonstrate the influence effect of media sentiment on enterprises in different platelets is different,and the results are the most significant in the regression of Shanghai main board enterprise sample.Enterprises in some specific industries,such as manufacturing,construction,wholesale,retail and financial industries,are most affected by media sentiment,while enterprises in information services,leasing and commercial services are significantly affected by media sentiment,but opposite to the results of the whole sample.After the epidemic,due to the epidemic prevention and control measures,the uncertainty of enterprise production is higher,so the influence of media sentiment on performance forecast quality is more significant before the epidemic.In addition,in the past,scholars mainly relied on search index and word frequency statistics of news text to collect relevant media information.This paper uses deep learning model to construct media sentiment index,which makes the sentiment measurement more reasonable.This paper marginally expands the perspective of influencing factors of performance forecast and enriches the application of media text in the empirical research of finance.