Research On Prediction Of Tourism Trend Recovery

As one of the most important branches of the tourism industry,the inbound tourism market plays a vital role in showcasing a country’s comprehensive strength and improving its balance of payments.However,the inbound tourism market has suffered a huge blow after the outbreak of COVID-19.How to quickly recover from the impact of the epidemic is an urgent problem to be solved.Therefore,this article takes Shanghai and Guangzhou as examples,and conducts an in-depth study on the current situation and evolutionary characteristics of the inbound tourism market structure in these two cities,and proposes strategies for developing and expanding the inbound tourism market.A combination model is also used to predict the trend of future tourist arrivals in both cities,providing scientific and reasonable basis for tourism management departments and better supporting the recovery and development of the inbound tourism market.This article first conducts a spatial structure characteristic analysis of the inbound tourism market.By introducing indicators such as affinity,competition and geographical concentration index of the source market,the 16 major source markets are studied and analyzed.The results show that foreign visitors are the main source of inbound tourists in Shanghai,while Hong Kong and Macao compatriots are the main source of inbound tourists in Guangzhou.The main source markets of both cities are Asian markets.The overall affinity of the tourism source market is relatively high,concentrated in strong affinity markets.However,the competition is concentrated in the children’s and low-budget markets,and the competitiveness of most source markets is average,and market share and market growth rate need to be improved.Secondly,a time structure characteristic analysis is conducted on the inbound tourism market.The dynamic trends of inbound tourism over time are revealed from three aspects: the overall trend of inbound tourism,year-to-year changes,and month-to-month changes.The results show that the month-to-month trend of Shanghai and Guangzhou is highly consistent,and there is a clear seasonal variation,with each month showing an upward trend compared to the same month of the previous year.The peak seasons for tourism are spring and autumn,with the peak period of inbound tourism reaching 800,000 to 1.1 million visitors per month.The annual variation index of inbound tourism in Shanghai is higher than that of Guangzhou,and the tourist scale expands every year.Guangzhou has a more stable source market for tourists than Shanghai,and the demand for inbound tourism is relatively stable.Finally,a prediction is made on the recovery trend of tourism.By selecting the number of inbound tourists,Google search index,and epidemic cases for correlation analysis and causality tests,the Google search index is determined as the explanatory variable.The time series of inbound tourist numbers is decomposed into trend components,residual components,and cyclical components.The trend components are predicted using an ARIMA model,while the residual components are predicted using an LSTM model.The predicted results of the two models are added to the cyclical components to obtain the final trend of tourism recovery.The model evaluation results show that the combined model has an R2 value of over 0.95,which is higher than that of a single model and has better fitting and forecasting capabilities.The tourism recovery trend shows that Shanghai is expected to recover to 700,000 visitors in January 2024,which will still take about a year.Guangzhou is expected to recover to 700,000 visitors in August 2024,which will still take about a year and a half to recover.