Forecast Of Urban Logistics Demand Combination Based On IOWGA Operator

With the continuous development of the social economy,the status of the logistics industry in the tertiary industry has gradually improved.The development of the logistics industry in the society affects all aspects,and the various factors are intricate and intertwined,and the development of society and the development of the logistics industry are inseparably related.In order to study the future logistics demand of Nanchang and explore its influencing factors,the methods of grey correlation analysis,IOWGA operator combination model and scenario prediction are used to predict and analyze the logistics demand in Nanchang.This paper analyzes the relevant influencing factors of logistics demand in Nanchang,and analyzes the pre-selected indicators by using the grey correlation degree.Secondly,the residual gray prediction model and BP neural network model are used as the prediction base models for analysis and prediction,and in order to further improve the prediction accuracy and generalization ability of the prediction model,combined with the calculation and weighting ability of induced ordered weighted geometric average operator(IOWGA),a combined prediction model based on IOWGA operator is constructed.Finally,in order to make the forecast model more in line with the actual situation,the logistics demand is analyzed by scenario.The results of the study are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes the influencing factors affecting logistics demand from two aspects:regional economic environment and logistics demand and supply scale,and selects a total of 8indicators;Then,the grey correlation analysis of the influencing factors shows that the correlation degree of per capita disposable income,goods turnover and regional GDP of urban residents exceeds 0.85,and the correlation degree is extremely strong;the correlation degree of per capita GDP is 0.522227,and the correlation degree is average.Prediction analysis was carried out after eliminating the influencing factors with weak correlation per capita GDP.(2)Establish an IOWGA operator combination prediction model.Using the residual gray prediction and BP neural network model to analyze and predict the logistics demand in Nanchang from 2000 to 2021,it is found that although the overall accuracy of the two single prediction models reaches more than 95%,the error in some years still has more than 10% error,in order to reduce the error of different years,the two models are combined by IOWGA operators,and a combined prediction model based on IOWGA operators is established,and the overall accuracy of the combined model after calculation reaches more than 98%.The maximum error in different years is also about 5%,and then the error of the three models is compared,and it is found that the combined model has the smallest prediction error and is better than the other two single models.(3)In view of the actual situation of Nanchang,this paper adopts scenario prediction,which is divided into three scenarios according to the adjustment of the influencing factors of Nanchang according to the development of society and the goals of the government: normal development scenario,high-speed development scenario and low-speed development scenario,which affects the development of logistics demand through the change of influencing factor data in the next 5 years.The forecast results of the normal development scenario are 18572.02,19874.79,20931.95,22602.92 and 242.5848 million tons;the forecast results of the high-speed development scenario are 19858.23,21155.77,22503.22,24309.82 and 265.8911 million tons;the forecast results of the low-speed development scenario are 17541.24,18616.94,19368.24,20628.76 and 219.5055 million tons.Finally,according to the results of scenario prediction,relevant suggestions and countermeasures are put forward.