Research On Semiconductor Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On Fuzzy B-S Model

With the vigorous development of domestic 5G communications,new energy vehicles and other emerging fields,the semiconductor industry chain has ushered in an explosion of demand from bottom to top.While domestic terminal manufacturers are seizing opportunities for domestic substitution,they are also facing rapid technological iteration and large capital investment,Long R&D cycle and other development bottlenecks.The continuous impact of US trade sanctions,the new crown epidemic and other factors have caused substantial changes in the value of domestic semiconductor companies.Traditional corporate value evaluation methods are no longer sufficient for objective value evaluation of semiconductor companies at this stage.In order to accurately evaluate the enterprise value of the semiconductor industry at this stage,a new value evaluation method based on the fuzzy B-S model was constructed by integrating the economic value-added model(EVA model)and the option pricing model(B-S model),which takes dividend payment into consideration While considering the influence of the rate on the value of real options,the parameter of dividend payment rate is added to the B-S model,which effectively solves the problem that the application of the B-S model does not fit the reality.Considering the fact that intangible assets account for a large proportion of the value of semiconductor companies,the probability function of asset growth rate is constructed,and the possible situations are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method,which can effectively solve the problem of inaccurate volatility estimation.By constructing the corresponding trapezoidal membership function and fuzzing the B-S model,the fixed value of the option value can be changed into a possible range,which can effectively reduce the rigidity of the parameters and make the evaluation results more realistic.The research shows that the addition of the dividend payment rate in the B-S model makes the pricing model more in line with the actual situation of the semiconductor industry;the use of Monte Carlo simulation methods to improve the volatility increases the accuracy of the volatility parameters;fuzzy mathematics and the B-S model The combination of makes the option value more flexible and reduces the influence of inappropriate parameter selection on the valuation results.Sensitivity analysis shows that volatility has a significant effect on enterprise value,and using Monte Carlo improved volatility,the corresponding option value is closer to the actual value of the enterprise.The application example of the value evaluation of Yangjie Technology Co.,Ltd.,which is mainly engaged in the manufacture of power semiconductor chips and devices,shows the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed value evaluation method.This method provides a theoretical and practical value for the value evaluation of enterprises.A new kind of reference.