Research On Commodity Demand Forecasting And Inventory Control Model For Cross-Border E-Commerce

With the vigorous development of cross-border e-commerce under the support of Internet technology,the problem that cross-border e-commerce enterprises are difficult to predict market demand and formulate inventory control strategies has become increasingly prominent.Traditional demand forecasting methods and inventory control strategies have limitations in practical applications.How to more effectively predict market demand and formulate reasonable inventory control strategies for enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency has become one of the key directions of e-commerce research in recent years.This topic combines prediction methods based on traditional statistics and machine learning,constructs dynamic demand forecasting models based on different methods,and constructs a two-level multi-period inventory control model based on the demand forecasting results.Firstly,this paper described the development status of domestic cross-border ecommerce,analyzed the current situation of demand forecasting and inventory control in cross-border e-commerce,summarized the problems existing in demand forecasting and inventory control in current e-commerce research,and put forward the idea of constructing a model for cross-border e-commerce demand forecasting and inventory control according to the research content and key problems.Secondly,aiming at the analysis and construction of demand forecasting model,this paper analyzes the demand forecasting problem faced by cross-border e-commerce,clarifies the process of inventory classification and data preprocessing based on ABC-XYZ,and focuses on the construction of the dynamic update and selection process of demand forecasting model.On this basis,this paper proposed a dynamic demand forecasting model based on moving average method,cubic exponential smoothing method,differential integrated moving average autoregressive model and long short-term memory network.Thirdly,for the analysis and construction of the inventory control model,the problems of reorder point and order quantity that need to be solved by the inventory control model are analyzed.Through the analysis of the continuous inventory inspection strategy,the mathematical model is used to abstract the inventory control process of cross-border ecommerce enterprises and the inventory control problem is transformed into a linear programming problem.A two-level multi-period inventory control model for overseas warehouse and platform warehouse is constructed.Then,the demand forecasting model and inventory control model are analyzed and used.Net and Python programming to realize the proposed model and algorithm,using the historical sales data and inventory data of merchants in the cross-border e-commerce service platform,the model is verified respectively,and the experimental process is described to illustrate the effectiveness of the model.Finally,according to the proposed model,a hierarchical model of demand forecasting and inventory control system for cross-border e-commerce was constructed,the specific implementation methods of each level were described,and an example application was carried out to illustrate the feasibility and correctness of the example application.