Study On Inventory Control Strategy Of Firm A’s Steel Chattel Pledge Based On Combined Price Forecasting Model

The capital flow of the steel industry chain is relatively painful,and the demands for funds is strong.With the advent of the Industrial Internet of steel,the chattel pledge has become one of the critical supply chain finance models in the steel supply chain.However,the steel market price is relatively volatile,which leads to the high-value risk of the steel chattel pledge.As an important participant in the chattel pledge business,the risk-sharing role of logistics enterprises cannot be ignored.The responsibility of logistics enterprises in chattel pledge is to control goods,which is essentially a narrow inventory control problem.It is necessary to ensure that under price fluctuations,the corresponding value of the amount of chattel is higher than the loan amount.As a traditional enterprise in bulk warehousing and logistics,A has an important business in the steel chattel pledge.However,the current inventory control strategy of firm A is inadequate,and the risk control is not strict enough.According to the context,this thesis takes the steel chattel pledge of firm A as the research object.Firstly,this thesis briefly introduces its steel chattel pledge and its pledge value risk,and analyzes the existing problems and the ideal state of its current pledge inventory control strategy.This thesis disassembles the problem,which the current inventory control strategy ignoring the risk of lead time for replenishment,and refines it into the forecast of steel prices and the design of inventory control strategies.In terms of steel price forecasting,this thesis uses the EMD theory to decompose the steel price series,and reconstructs the components into high-frequency,low-frequency,and trend components according to component characteristics.And then,different prediction methods are selected based on the fluctuations of the reconstructed components and their linear characteristics to form a combined prediction model ESLA(EMD-SVR-LSTM-ARIMA).Through the experiments,this thesis proves that the ESLA(EMD-SVR-LSTM-ARIMA)model is better in single-step and multi-step iterative prediction than the previous single prediction model and simple combining model in steel price forecasting.In the design of inventory control strategy,considering that there will always be errors in forecasts,in order to reduce the price risk caused by the higher prediction,this thesis proposes a method of adjusting the coefficient to deal with the problem based on the idea of adjusting the forecasting according to the historical forecasting error.And then,inspired by dynamic inventory control strategy under unstable demand,a dynamic inventory control strategy suitable for company A’s steel chattel pledge is designed.Through case numerical simulation analysis,it is verified that the inventory control strategy proposed in the thesis is better than the current strategy and can reduce a certain risk loss.The inventory control strategy based on the combined price prediction model proposed in this thesis can help firm A carry out more rigorous inventory control,improve its risk control level,and help it gain greater competitiveness in the blue ocean market of steel chattel pledges.