| Wood is a kind of green raw material that causes less environmental pollution and energy consumption during its use.In 2020,China has proposed the long-term goal of "carbon peak" before 2030 and "carbon neutral" before 2060 at the United Nations General Assembly.In 2021,at the National Two Sessions,the formulation of "carbon peak" action plan by optimizing the industrial and energy structure to vigorously develop green and low-carbon industries has been proposed again.As the only low-carbon material among the four major raw materials of steel,cement and plastic,wood will usher in a great opportunity.However,due to the shortage of forest resources in China,the demand of wood exceeds its supply and external dependence is high.Therefore,the change of imported wood’s price will do a great impact on China’s wood industry.Under this circumstance,this paper will focus on the imported wood price risk and put forward preventive measures.In this paper,Pinus sylvestris var.sylvestris,which accounts for the largest quantity of imported wood,is taken as the research object.On the basis of the research on the price return series of Pinus sylvestris,the characteristics of price fluctuation of Pinus sylvestris are described and characterized by GARCH and E-GARCH models,and the risk measurement of price fluctuation of Pinus sylvestris is carried out.The price of Pinus sylvestris var.sylvestris has the characteristics of peak and thick tail,fluctuation concentration and leverage.Its price is more easily impacted by the negative tendency of market than the positive ones.Both VAR-GARCH and VAR-e-GARCH models can accurately measure the risk of its price change.This study selects indicators from the macro perspective,and the EMD model was used to carry out modal decomposition of the price of Pinus sylvestris var.sylvestris.Three trend variables,IMF1,IMF2 and RES were obtained.Correlation analysis was conducted between the three variables and the indicators,and then regression analysis was also conducted.The short-term fluctuation of import price of Sylvestre sylvestre log was positively correlated with GDP,CPI and PPI,and negatively correlated with domestic log output.Medium-term fluctuations are positively correlated with CPI,PPI and REER,and negatively correlated with external dependence and domestic log output.Long-term trend changes are positively correlated with GDP,REER,M2,total social fixed investment and export of forest products,and negatively correlated with external dependence and domestic log output.Based on the research on the risk and influencing factors of import price fluctuation of Pinus sylvestris var.sylvestris log,the feasibility and value of the development of log futures products were theoretically analyzed,and the functional advantages of price discovery and hedging in futures market were utilized to creatively propose the development of log futures products.And the delivery place of the product,delivery standard,the ratio of limit and margin,futures contract format and future futures innovation path are designed in detail to help log producers,market traders and speculators prevent risks.According to the research results,the following suggestions are put forward:firstly,promote the use of price volatility risk measurement methods to promote the timber enterprises to improve the ability of risk identification;secondly,stabilize timber import channels,establish timber futures trading market,improve the attraction and activity of timber trading market,and promote the long-term development of timber industry;thirdly,use the "Internet +" mode,integrate the upstream and downstream industry chain,create domestic wood brand advantages,make full use of the domestic market scale advantage,alleviate the problem of high dependence on foreign timber industry,to promote the domestic wood industry to the world and improve the pricing power of timber enterprises. |
PDF Full Text Request