| Urban and rural residents’ basic endowment insurance as a basic endowment insurance system in China,in just a few short years to carry out quickly realizing a complete coverage of the institutional,provides a large number of urban and rural residents in China old-age security,to make up for the vast majority of rural residents do not have the social endowment insurance system,generates a lot of positive policy effects.However,previous studies also found that the urban and rural residents’ basic endowment insurance system has low security level,lack of sustainable incentive mechanism and other disadvantages in the implementation process.Based on the above background,this paper tries to study whether the implementation of the basic endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents has a significant impact on the household consumption of rural residents,the main target group,and explore its influence mechanism.In view of this research objective,this paper first uses relevant consumption theory to analyze theoretically that the basic endowment insurance of urban and rural residents may promote the household consumption expenditure of rural residents.Secondly,based on the panel data of CHARLS in 2011,2013,2015 and 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of rural residents’ insurance participation on total household consumption and household consumption structure by using the fixed effects model.Finally,the stepwise test of regression coefficient method is adopted,and six possible mediation variables are introduced to analyze the possible influence mechanism.Through the above empirical analysis,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)In terms of the impact on the total household consumption,first of all,the participation of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents has a significant positive impact on the total household consumption of all the insured.Secondly,the pension income of the insured in the receiving stage has no significant impact on the total household consumption,while the expected amount of the insured in the paying stage has a significant positive impact on the total household consumption.(2)In terms of the impact on household consumption structure,first of all,for rural residents over 60 years old,the basic endowment insurance of urban and rural residents only has a significant positive impact on their food expenditure.Secondly,for rural residents under the age of 60,the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents has a significant positive impact on their food expenditure,education expenditure and medical expenditure,which has a certain consumption upgrading effect.(3)In terms of influencing mechanism,first of all,for rural residents over 60 years old,the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents mainly increases the total household consumption through the intermediary effect of absolute income effect,relative income effect,transfer income effect and transfer expenditure effect.Secondly,for rural residents under the age of 60,the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents mainly increases the total household consumption through the wealth effect,transfer income effect and transfer expenditure effect as the intermediary effect.In addition,it can be seen from the analysis that the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents has significantly changed the pension concept of rural residents,and some residents have begun to choose endowment insurance as the main support for the pension,but this change in pension concept has not further increased the total household consumption.To sum up,this paper believes that the basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents plays a certain role in promoting the consumption expenditure of rural residents,and can provide life security for rural elderly residents to a certain extent,but its security level is relatively limited,and it only plays an initial role in the transformation of rural residents’pension concept.Based on these conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:firstly,gradually improve the basic pension benefits,and establish a stable and predictable growth model.Secondly,increase the publicity of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents and increase the accumulation of personal accounts.Finally,promote the development of rural old-age services and medical care services related industries,and effectively realize the elderly residents in rural areas to support their old age. |
