Prediction Ability Of Securities Analysts’ Research Reports And Stock Investment Returns

With the prosperity of the Internet and the perfection of the information disclosure system in the securities market,individual investors have more and more channels for obtaining stock information,including the individual stock research reports written by securities analysts.However,the qualifications of analysts in the industry are uneven,and the quantity of research reports published is huge.As an important reference for retail investors to analyze and make decisions,how to analyze,identify and use and make decisions on the various types of information released by these analysts,and obtain benefits from the securities market where information asymmetry and risk opportunities coexist,is the first problem that retail investors should think about.Therefore,it is particularly important to objectively evaluate the influence of analysts in the capital market and make reasonable use of the analysis and suggestions in company research reports written by securities analysts.This article starts with analyst research reports and uses the event research method to empirically analyze the cumulative excess returns of stock price fluctuations in the period before and after the public release of research and analysis reports by major brokerage institutions since 2011-2020,so as to study the impact of the publication of analyst research reports in the Chinese securities market on the stock prices of the corresponding listed companies,and further analyzes the rating change of the analyst report,the fame of the securities company,the fame of the analyst,the target price,the type of research report,the relationship between the size of a listed company and the cumulative excess rate of return.Empirical evidence draws the following conclusions: There is a significant positive correlation between the change of rating reported by analysts and the cumulative excess return;Research report type has a positive impact on stock price,and the cumulative excess return brought by the securities analyst after issuing the in-depth report is higher than the cumulative excess return brought about by the publication of the general report;In the short term,the stock price will be more vulnerable to celebrity analysts,and in the long run,the research report issued by the securities company with the higher the reputation of the securities company will bring more excess return than the ordinary securities company.