Research On The Influence Of Senior Stock Market Investor Sentiment On The Return Rate Of China Stock Market

Since the 1980 s,with the increasing volatility of the financial market,scholars have tried to explain the anomalies of the financial market.Behavioral finance is one of the important theories.At this time,the traditional academic circles began to study the investor sentiment.With the development of social networks,the interaction between investors in the stock market has become more convenient.The rapid spread and amplification of the network can affect the stock market to a certain extent by affecting investor sentiment.Therefore,this paper will focus on investor sentiment and study the relationship between senior investor sentiment and stock market return.Different from the traditional method of constructing emotion,this paper selects the content on the snowball website as the data source.The method is use the text analysis and uses Python 2.7.The software quantifies the investor sentiment by posting on snowball online from January 1,2021 to December 31,2021,including the posts of the sender and followers.In addition,users are also filtered,only users with snowball exclusive authentication are screened,and they are identified as senior investors,so as to build senior investor sentiment indicators.At the same time,this paper selects the daily data of the Shanghai composite index return in the above-mentioned trading days,and analyzes the impact of senior investor sentiment on the stock market return by constructing a vector error correction model.In addition,by changing the explanatory variables in the article,this paper replaces the yield of Shanghai Composite Index with the yield of Shanghai and Hushen 300,and establishes a vector error correction model between senior investor sentiment and the yield of Shanghai and Hushen 300 to test its robustness.It does not change the above basic conclusions,which appears that,the relationship between senior speculator assumption and stock advertise return,which built up in this paper is steady and the conclusion is viable.The observational comes about appear that finance specialist estimation can influence the stock showcase return,and the stock market return will also affect investor sentiment,there is a two-way causal relationship between senior investor sentiment and Shanghai Stock Exchange index return.Based on the sentiment of senior investors,this paper compares it with that of ordinary investors,and finds that senior investors have the most positive comments,followed by neutral comments and the least negative comments.Ordinary investors made the most neutral comments,followed by negative comments and the least positive comments.It is concluded that compared with the sentiment of senior investors and ordinary investors,the sentiment of senior investors is generally positive and that of ordinary investors is generally negative.Finally,on this basis,combined with the whole article,four research conclusions are summarized.To begin with,there is a relationship between senior investor sentiment and stock market return.Second,there is a two-way causal relationship.Third,the sentiment of senior investors is generally positive and that of individual investors is generally negative.Fourth,the causal relationship between senior investor sentiment and stock market return has universal applicability.In addition,the author puts forward relevant policy suggestions from three aspects: ordinary investors,senior investors,relevant government departments and regulators.