Analysis On The Effects Of Us Monetary Policy On The Leverage Ratio Of Chinese Enterprises

According to the Bank for International Settlements(BIS),the macro leverage ratio of China’s non financial corporate sector is consistently in the high range compared to other countries.The “14th five-year plan”indicates that China’s future deleveraging policy is “To give priority to stability,to have a steady drop”.In order to achieve the goal of optimizing the structural leverage ratio,all kinds of influencing factors must be taken into account,and the change of international economic factors is an important part of it.After the economic depression the subprime crisis brought,US conducted unconventional monetary policy to enhance market vitality.As the domestic economic situation improved,policy began to return to normalcy.Multiple changes in the Fed’s monetary policy and the financing environment of emerging market countries are linked,and eventually transmitted to the adjustment of leverage ratio of enterprises.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the effect of American monetary policy on the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and the mechanism of financing constraint.In the theoretical part,this thesis constructs a dynamic enterprise behavior model which covers outside price monetary policy,and gets the conclusion that the leverage level of enterprises with different financing constraints diverges when they are subject to external shocks,and then concludes the corresponding hypothesis.At the same time,the theoretical part also describes the transmission path of monetary policy in the model and the measurement of financing constraints for empirical measurement.In the empirical part,this thesis collects the non-financial enterprises listed on A-share market in China from2007 to 2019 as the sample,uses shadow interest rate as the proxy variable of US monetary policy,and constructs an intermediary effect model,empirical tests the relationship between US monetary policy and leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China.Then,the cross-product of shadow interest rate and financing constraint is introduced,and the sensitivity and heterogeneity of financing constraint are explained by grouping test.Finally,we further group the degree of financing constraint and the size of enterprises to test the robustness of financing constraints and heterogeneity.The results show that:(1)the increase of us shadow interest rate reduces the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China;(2)the increase of us shadow interest rate will reduce the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China by increasing the financing constraints of enterprises,which means the financing constraint has intermediary effect;(3)the release of financing constraint will weaken the influence of US shadow interest rate on the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China.In particular,firms with high financing constraints are more susceptible to US shadow interest rates than firms with low financing constraints;compared with the state-owned enterprises,the leverage ratio of private enterprises in China is more obviously regulated by the shadow interest rate.Finally,based on the empirical results,the thesis puts forward that enterprises should take the initiative to diversify financing methods,improve operational efficiency and optimize the leverage level;the goverment should actively implement the reform of stateowned enterprises and restrain the behavior of local governments,to create a favorable financing environment for small-scale private enterprises;in policy,we should promote the marketization of domestic interest rates and reduce the impact of external policy shocks on the autonomy of China’s monetary policy.From the perspectives of enterprises,goverment and the country,this thesis provides concrete policy suggestions and practical measures to solve the problem of high leverage in China.