Policy Change,Risk-taking And Corporate Financial Crisis

In the rapidly changing economic environment,China’s future policies will inevitably impact the existing policies,resulting in changes in policies.The uncertainty risk caused by policy change will have a negative effect on the corporate In order to simplify the analysis,this thesis divides the types of policy changes into policy changes from promotional or restrictive policies(“from scratch”),policy changes from promotional policies to restrictive policies(“from lenient to tight”),and policy changes from restrictive policies to promotional policies(“from tight to lenient”).According to the time sequence of policy introduction,this paper uses the logical model analysis technology proposed by Robert K.Yin in case study: Design and Method to study the causal logical relationship between the policy change and risk-taking and the corporates financial crisis from the introduction of promotional policy(“from scratch”),promotional policy to restrictive policy(“from lenient to tight”);And to study the impact mechanism of policy change on the corporate financial crisis.Taking risk-taking as the starting point,based on the three sub concepts of risk-taking,namely risk-taking willingness,risk-taking level and risk-taking ability,this thesis clarifies the theoretical logic relationship of “Policy change-Risk-taking-Corporate financial crisis” through literature research method,and puts forward the theoretical viewpoint of this paper,constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the impact mechanism of policy change on the corporate financial crisis;Based on this theoretical analysis framework,clarify the case logical relationship of “Introduction of PPP promotional policy-Risk-taking of Griental Garden-Transformation of PPP promotional policiy into PPP restrictive policy-Financial Crisis of Oriental Garden”,and construct a case analysis framework of the impact of PPP policy change on the financial crisis of Oriental Garden;Based on the case analysis framework,this paper analyzes the case evidence through the case study method,and discusses how the policy change of “from scratch” of the promotional policy will lead to the change of the corporate risk-taking state;Whether the policy change from promotional policy to restrictive policy(“from lenient to tight”)will increase the possibility of financial crisis for corporate with unbalanced risk-taking level and risk-taking ability;And combs the formation process of financial crisis of Oriental garden,gradually confirming the theoretical viewpoint of this paper,and further revising the theoretical analysis framework of the impact mechanism of policy change on the corporate financial crisis.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows: First,the introduction of promotional policies(“from scratch”)will change the corporate risk-taking level and risk-taking ability,and then lead the corporate to enter different risk-taking state.Before the introduction of the policy,the risk-taking level of Oriental Garden is relatively low and the risk-taking ability is relatively strong,which is in the “state 1” of risk-taking;After the introduction of PPP promotional policy,Oriental Garden entered the “state 4”of risk-taking with relatively high risk-taking level and relatively weak risk-taking ability.Second,the policy change from promotional policy to restrictive policy(“from lenient to tight”)will increase the possibility of financial crisis for corporate with unbalanced risk-taking level and risk-taking ability.Oriental Garden,whose risk-taking level and risk-taking ability are out of balance,has a weak buffer ability to deal with the risk of changes in the external environment.The change from PPP promotional policy to PPP restrictive policy has led to huge losses,capital chain rupture,debt default and other crisis events,increasing the possibility of financial crisis.Third,other important factors affecting the financial crisis of Oriental Garden mainly include: internal factors such as management overconfidence and “one share dominates”,“two functions in one”corporate governance structure;External factors such as delayed payment by local governments and stricter financial supervision.The above internal and external factors lead to the financial crisis of Oriental Garden.Fourth,based on the characteristics of policy periodic changes,this paper divides the formation process of Oriental Garden financial crisis into three stages: crisis latent stage,crisis deterioration stage and crisis outbreak stage,and summarizes the impact mechanism of policy change on the corporate financial crisis.Fifth,based on this mechanism,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: maintain a reasonable debt level and rationally formulate investment and financing strategies;Broaden financing channels and reduce external financing dependence;Improve the corporate governance structure and pay attention to the cultivation of talents’ ability;Establish risk early warning mechanism and improve risk management ability;Improve the effectiveness of policies and reduce the negative impact of the company.The innovation of this thesis is to put forward a three-stage model of financial crisis process,which enriches the research on the economic consequences of policy change,the influencing factors and economic consequences of corporate risk-taking,the influencing factors and formation process of financial crisis,and expands the research perspective in the field of policy change and corporate financial crisis to a certain extent;In the future,we can expand the direction of policy changes and further enrich the research conclusions of this paper.