Research On The Characteristics And Causes Of Vegetable Price Fluctuations Under The Impact Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

The price of vegetables is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood,which not only affects the normal circulation of vegetables in the market,but also affects the interests of producers and consumers,as well as the stability of society and the degree of people’s happiness.In the past three years,due to the frequent occurrence of climatic and geological disasters,the repeated outbreaks of the epidemic,and various international trade frictions that have led to changes in commodity prices,the domestic vegetable prices have fluctuated frequently,which has directly led to the impact of the domestic vegetable market,which has had a great impact on the normal life of the majority of residents and the income of vegetable farmers,which fully indicates that there is still a shortage of the market supply system.Therefore,this thesis sorts out and summarizes the research results on the characteristics and influencing factors of vegetable price fluctuations in the academic community,and then collects and sorts out the vegetable price data of Wuhan Baishazhou Wholesale Market in the past three years,and conducts in-depth and systematic analysis of the characteristics and influencing factors of different types of vegetable price fluctuations through descriptive analysis methods and empirical analysis methods according to the theory of market supply and demand,hoping to provide certain ideas for improving the ability of the market to cope with sudden shocks in the later stage.The thesis first analyzes the current situation of supply and demand in the domestic vegetable market,including the status quo of production,consumption and import and export;then sorts out and summarizes the current layout of the domestic vegetable industry structure,and introduces the three major regional layouts of the key areas of winter and spring vegetables,the key areas of vegetables in summer and autumn,the key areas of vegetables in Huang Huaihai and the Bohai Rim.Next,this thesis introduces why the wholesale vegetable price data of Wuhan Bai Shazhou is used as the research object,and then the price fluctuation characteristics of 12 kinds of vegetables in each quarter in the past three years are descriptively analyzed,and the study finds that the price fluctuation of vegetables is greatly affected by seasonality;then the stability and autocorrelation test of the obtained data are further examined,and an ARCH model is established to empirically analyze the fluctuation of vegetable prices in the wholesale market of Wuhan Bai Shazhou The inherent characteristics of vegetable price fluctuations with strong sensitivity,memory and sustainability are analyzed by the GARCH model,the asymmetry of vegetable price fluctuations is proved by the TARCH model,and finally the asymmetrical internal characteristics of 12 kinds of vegetable price fluctuations are specifically analyzed by the EGARCH model,which is specifically manifested as the "sharp rise and slow decline" of vegetable price fluctuations.After analyzing the characteristics of vegetable price fluctuations,the author continues to analyze the causes of vegetable price fluctuations in depth and detail,specifically from three aspects: first of all,the causes of supply,including abnormal natural climate change will affect vegetable production,the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the past two years has affected the normal planting and effective supply of vegetables,and the increase in production and circulation costs has further led to the rise in vegetable prices;and then the causes of consumption,including residents’ consumption levels and habits.And speculation in the consumer sector will also affect the fluctuation of vegetable prices;finally,there are other causes,including but not limited to market information asymmetry and government macro-control.In view of the causes of vegetable price fluctuations,the author puts forward five countermeasures and suggestions for slowing down the price fluctuations of major vegetable varieties: First,it is necessary to improve the ability to promote the promotion of vegetable varieties to resist natural disasters;second,to promote the cold chain storage and transportation technology of vegetable varieties;third,to guide residents to adjust their consumption habits and structure;fourth,It is necessary to give full play to the government’s role in macroeconomic regulation and control;fifth,to strengthen the government’s macro-control status as the main body.The thesis finally came to the following conclusions: First,the price of different kinds of vegetables fluctuates in different time periods,because vegetables will be greatly affected by the seasonal climate in the process of production and supply;second,it is difficult for farmers to accurately and efficiently grasp the market trend,and it is easy to misjudge the future trend,and blindly expand the planting of some agricultural products,which then leads to excessive supply,and the vicious circle will cause the market phenomenon of "too much goods is worthless";third,According to the empirical analysis results of the ARCH model,it is found that the fluctuations of vegetable prices show a cluster distribution,and have the characteristics of strong sensitivity,strong memory and strong sustainability,and the price fluctuations of some vegetables also have asymmetrical inherent characteristics.Fourth,when an abnormal situation seriously disrupts the original normal order of the market and the vegetable market cannot self-regulate,the state and the government come forward in time to macro-control in order to ensure people’s livelihood to the greatest extent.