Causes And Risk Prevention Of Default Of Huaxia Happiness Bonds

The macroeconomic situation is constantly changing,the investment demand is becoming stronger and stronger,the domestic bond market is also developing rapidly,and the violations are also increasing accordingly,triggering waves of defaults.Focusing on the real estate industry,with the continuous rise of the scale of real estate enterprise bonds and the arrival of the peak of industry credit repayment,the tightening of industry regulation policies has tightened the financing channels and slowed down the overall sales growth,weakening the payment collection ability.The credit risk of the issuer has gradually appeared,and there have been continuous defaults at the beginning,showing the characteristics of gradually spreading from regional small and medium-sized real estate enterprises to national well-known large real estate enterprises and typical enterprises.In this context,this thesis selects the real estate enterprises with frequent recent defaults as the research object.Firstly,focusing on the comprehensive current situation of the real estate bond market,this thesis makes a specific analysis on the real estate enterprises from the aspects of the current situation of the industry credit bonds,the industry regulation policies,the growth rate of the industry funds and the current situation of the default of the industry credit bonds,and further comes to the conclusion that the default risk of the real estate enterprise bonds continues to spread and intensify.Then it introduces the general situation of Huaxia happiness and reviews the events of default from the time dimension.On this basis,the causes of default are analyzed from the macro,industry and company perspectives: from the macro level,the economic downturn leads to high operating pressure,tight financing under the change of credit environment,deepening the financial pressure of enterprises and capital liquidity problems.From the perspective of the industry,the real estate market policies affect the real estate business of enterprises,resulting in the decline of profitability and operation ability;The financial policy made it difficult for enterprises to refinance and reduced their solvency.From the internal perspective of the enterprise,it can be summarized into four points: first,the misjudgment of the situation around Beijing,the early investment was too concentrated in the area around Beijing,and the real estate regulation and control policies affected the property market around Beijing,resulting in poor business benefits;Second,open the road of strategic expansion,undertake too many industrial new town PPP projects,and the rapid expansion leads to the decline of operating capacity and the surge of debt scale;Third,after Ping An settled in Huaxia happiness,it bet on commercial real estate to push up the capital risk and miss the opportunity to save itself;Fourth,the debt structure is unreasonable,the short-term solvency is reduced,it is difficult to refinance under the new financing regulations,and the intensity of non-standard financing is increased,resulting in higher financing costs,more final maturing debts,and new financing cannot be covered.According to the analysis of Z-score Model,it is found that the default risk has existed for a long time and is further exposed over time.Then it analyzes the bond default risk,including the financial risk after default,and selects the modified Z-score Model to quantify the default risk.At the same time,it judges whether the modified Z-score model can give early warning to the company’s credit risk.In addition,the comparison with the issuer and debt credit rating given by the rating agency shows that the rating result of the rating agency lags behind.Finally,it combs the full text,summarizes the prevention measures of bond default risk and puts forward case enlightenment.The prevention measures include: first,reasonably plan financing to prevent excessive debt scale.Specific measures include paying attention to internal financing;Second,formulate reasonable strategies to avoid blind expansion.The specific measures include paying close attention to the relevant policies of the industry,reasonably evaluating the situation of enterprises,flexibly responding to sudden changes in the environment and strengthening the evaluation of investment projects;Third,strengthen operation and management and improve profitability.Specifically,it includes paying attention to inventory elimination,controlling the risk of accounts receivable and reasonable cost control.Fourth,establish and improve the financial early warning and risk response mechanism.