Research On Demand Forecast And Guarantee Mechanism Of Medical Devices In Company B

With the continuous improvement of the income level of Chinese residents and the obvious aging trend,the market demand for medical devices has further expanded,which has brought great pressure to the inventory control of medical device companies.As one of the largest medical device companies in the world,Company B faced problems such as low demand forecasting accuracy and unreasonable ordering arrangements for its products.On the one hand,the company does not subdivide by product and does not make forecasts based on product characteristics.On the other hand,the company mainly adopts simple forecasting methods such as moving average method through planners,and conducts manual adjustment based on personal industry experience.The current forecasting methods are too simple,have low accuracy,and are difficult to deal with fluctuations in demand.This directly leads to the poor ability of company B to resist risks,often out of stock or redundant inventory,resulting in a lot of inventory costs.Therefore,it is of great significance to discuss the problem of product demand forecasting of Company B.This paper takes Company B as the research background,and conducts management optimization research on its demand forecasting method.First,analyze company B’s product sales and current inventory levels,find out the problems faced by company B,and analyze their causes.Secondly,two indicators such as product unit price and sales quantity are extracted to classify products,and different forecasting strategies are adopted for products with different importance levels.Then,on the basis of the one-time exponential smoothing method,the coefficient of variation method is used to construct a combined forecasting model that comprehensively considers the SARIMA and Light GBM models,and the comprehensive forecasting results are obtained accordingly.Finally,on the basis of greatly improving the accuracy of demand forecasting results,and based on the actual situation of Company B,a corresponding collaborative guarantee mechanism is established,and it advocates clarifying the rights and responsibilities of each department in the workflow,strengthening the data construction of the workflow,and predicting The results are assessed and evaluated,so as to provide institutional guarantee for the stable forecasting method established by Company B.The results of this paper show that the combined forecasting model has higher forecasting accuracy than the single forecasting model in the face of volatile data.Adopting the model proposed in this paper can effectively help company B to improve the company’s operational efficiency and product order response speed,and provide strong backup support for its business expansion in the Chinese market.At the same time,the relevant research results in this paper can also provide reference for prediction work in other fields.