Research On Chip Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On Fuzzy Real Options Metho

With the rapid development of 5G,the Internet of Things,artificial intelligence and other technologies,the consumer market is being updated and iterated rapidly.More and more enterprises begin to produce and manufacture terminals and modules serving various industries,and the operation of these products is inseparable from intelligent chips.However,most domestic chip companies only involve in low-end design and manufacturing,which cannot fully meet the needs of high-end technology industry.Under the influence of china-us trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic,If China wants to take the road of independent innovation and become a scientific and technological power,it must accelerate the development of a series of high-tech industries based on chips,improve the substitution rate of domestic products,and reduce the dependence on imported chips.In recent years,chip enterprises are very active in the investment market,and increasingly attract the attention of investors.Therefore,it is more and more important to accurately evaluate the value of chip enterprises.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of chip enterprises,this paper holds that the value of chip enterprises consists of existing value and potential value.However,traditional evaluation methods cannot evaluate the potential value of chip enterprises,so other evaluation methods must be selected.As the r&d and investment projects are characterized by independent decision-making of enterprises,they are very similar to real options.Therefore,this paper tries to evaluate the potential value of chip enterprises by using real options method.In view of the existing value evaluation of chip enterprises,this paper adopts cash flow discount method,and constructs a combination evaluation model combining free cash flow discount and real option.Because the parameters of the real option pricing model are too rigid,and the potential value of the enterprise is highly uncertain,the conflict between the two may lead to large errors in the evaluation results.Therefore,this paper introduces fuzzy mathematics method to improve the original real option model.Based on this,this paper takes Allwinner Technology as the case study object,first applies the portfolio evaluation model before fuzzy number improvement to evaluate the enterprise value of Allwinner Technology,then uses the portfolio evaluation model after fuzzy number improvement to evaluate,and then compares the two evaluation results with the enterprise value of the evaluation base date.The results show that: The portfolio evaluation model can well reflect the overall value of Allwinner Technology,but the evaluation result of the real option model improved by fuzzy number is closer to the market value of Allwinner Technology.