Research On Risk Evaluation And Influencing Factors Of Local Government Debt In China

China’s local government debt is large and growing fast,reaching 25 trillion yuan in 2020,an increase of about 18% year on year.Since 2019,affected by the worldwide outbreak of new crown,downward pressure on China’s macro economy continuously raised,business is difficult,to stimulate economic development,the central issued a proactive fiscal policy,launched a series of tax cuts measures at the same time,lead to local government fiscal spending increase of fiscal revenue is declining at the same time,new difficulties for repayment.At present,the local government debt crisis has not yet universal,but individual regions in deep debt crisis,from the us subprime crisis to the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis,the global concern and attention of the government debt the experience of the facts shows that individual regions,individual debt risk is not controlled,could trigger global financial risks.According to the reality,it is necessary to build a new system of local government debt risk evaluation,effective measure of government debt risk,analysis of the internal structure of debt’s risk,identification of debt risk factors,establish the scale control and risk prevention mechanism,government debt sustainability in the future,government credit,and plays an important role on economy running smoothly.This paper firstly reviews relevant research literature,analyzes the current research status,and summarizes relevant theories of local government debt,and makes a brief analysis of the current situation of local government debt in China.Secondly,based on the mechanism of the role of local government debt risk index framework will DPSIR(Driving force influence-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)model combined with local government debt risk through the empirical analysis,this paper constructs evaluation model with entropy method,then applies Arcgis map analysis to the debt risk of local government and the structure of the provinces in China.The research results show that the local debt risk in most of the country presents the U dynamic change trend,30 area has more obvious space difference.In the southwest and northwest regions such as Gansu,Ningxia and Qinghai,the local government debt risks are higher,while the north China plain area debt risks are in low and medium level.Thirdly,according to DPSIR model assessment results of local government debt,the fixed effect is used for regression analysis of influencing factors of local government debt.According to the measured risk index of local government debt,the regression analysis of relevant influencing factors is carried out.The research results show that among explanatory variables,Fiscal decentralization,per capita fiscal gap,local government explicit debt scale,local government implicit debt scale and local government debt risk have significant positive correlation,investment efficiency and local government debt risk show significant negative correlation.Among the control variables,marketization level,urbanization rate,infrastructure level and local government debt risk present a significant negative correlation.Finally,according to the evaluation results of local government debt and the analysis of influencing factors,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as solving local government debt according to local conditions,curbing local government irrational borrowing,improving investment efficiency,and finding new power sources for tax generation,exploring local government financial bankruptcy system,strengthening supervision and management of local government illegal guarantee.