| Outward foreign direct investment and international trade are important channels for a country to participate in global economic activities.The relationship between outward foreign direct investment and trade has always been the subject of scholars’ keen research.In the past ten years,the scale of China’s direct investment in the EU has expanded rapidly,and China-EU trade has also been on the rise.While on the global value chain perspective,the international division of production and the international flow of production factors have resulted in a large number of intermediate goods processing trade.Processing trade accounts for a large proportion in China’s export trade.In this case,if the export trade data from customs statistics is used to calculate China’s export to the EU,it is bound to be difficult to truly reflect the actual profitability of China’s export to the EU,and it is difficult to accurately reflect the export trade effect of China’s direct investment in the EU.In this regard,on the basis of expounding the relevant theoretical basis of the research,this paper first analyzes the development status of China’s direct investment and export trade in the EU,and points out the drawbacks of using traditional customs statistics for export trade data,thereby providing an export value-added accounting method that reflects the perspective of global value chains.It also analyzes the status quo of China’s export trade to the EU under the added value accounting method.Then it explains the influence mechanism of the export trade effect of China’s direct investment in the EU,and lays a theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis.Finally,it selects the data of China’s direct investment stock in 20 EU countries from 2005 to 2018 as core explanatory variables,and uses the data of China’s total exports to the EU under customs statistics and the data of export added value from the perspective of global value as dependent variables.It empirically tests the export trade effect of China’s direct investment in the EU by constructing an extended gravity model,and divides the total sample of 20 EU countries into a high-income group and a low-middle-income group according to the resident income ranking of EU countries to further test the research results.The research results show that China’s direct investment in the EU has a positive promotion effect on China’s total export to the EU and the added value of trade,and has a greater impact on the added value of exports,indicating the export-induced effect of China’s direct investment in the EU.After grouping EU countries according to their income level,it is found that the trade effect of China’s total export volume and export value added to EU high-level countries is significant,but the export trade effect to EU middle-and low-income countries is not significant,which shows that the trade effect of OFDI in the EU has country differences.Finally,according to the theoretical and empirical research results of the full text,three targeted policy recommendations are put forward for the future development of China’s direct investment and trade in the EU,so as to explore broader space and create brighter prospects for the deeper economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU. |
