Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Finance Based On GBDT

Under the "two vote system" reform,the pharmaceutical circulation links had been greatly reduced,and the problems of "multiple,scattered and disordered" at the upstream and downstream ends of the pharmaceutical industry chain had been effectively solved,which improved efficiency,and provided conditions for the smooth development of the pharmaceutical supply chain.In the meanwhile,the pharmaceutical industry was faced with restructuring and flattening,and the provincial pharmaceutical agents and big contractors who originally undertook the intermediate funding link were gradually withdrawing,resulting in the pharmaceutical production enterprises,pharmaceutical circulation enterprises and raw material suppliers were facing greater financial pressure.The new pressure had also created new opportunities,thus giving birth to a trillion level supply chain finance(SCF)market.However,due to information asymmetry and credit risk infectivity in the supply chain,pharmaceutical small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)had high credit risk.How to effectively evaluate the financial credit risk of the pharmaceutical supply chain was the key to grasp the market opportunities.This paper discusses the credit risk evaluation of pharmaceutical SMEs under the mode of SCF.First of all,combined with the current situation of pharmaceutical SCF,and based on the analysis of three typical financing modes of pharmaceutical SCF,this paper summarized the risk sources and characteristics of pharmaceutical SCF.Secondly,from the four aspects of financing enterprises,core enterprises,financing assets and the overall situation of the supply chain,this paper constructed the evaluation index system of credit risk of pharmaceutical SCF.Then,the data of 110 pharmaceutical enterprises in China’s small and medium-sized board and science and technology innovation board from 2017 to2019 are selected as research samples,and on the basis of factor analysis,using gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)to evaluate risk,and compared the evaluation results with those of support vector machine(SVM)and Logistic regression model.Finally,based on the perspective of financial institutions and regulatory authorities,this paper proposed credit risk management strategies.The results were as follows.Firstly,the profitability and solvency of financing enterprises,the profitability and solvency of core enterprises and the quality of inventory have significant influence on the credit risk of pharmaceutical SCF.Secondly,the accuracy of the overall prediction of GBDT model is 93.6%,which showed that the credit risk evaluation index system of pharmaceutical SCF was reasonable and effective;Thirdly,compared with SVM model and Logistic regression model,GBDT model has higher prediction accuracy,lower first type error rate and larger AUC value,which proved the advantages and effectiveness of GBDT model applied in the credit risk evaluation of pharmaceutical industry under the SCF mode.