The Spatial Effect Of Local Debt On Regional Economic Growth Under The New Development Pattern

Coordinating the balance between local debt and regional economic growth is of great significance to achieving high-quality transformation and development.Based on the provincial panel data of local debt from 2010 to 2018,this paper constructs a modified gravity model and uses social network analysis to generate a spatial correlation matrix to obtain the network strength and network status of local debt.From the perspective of economic space and geographic space,model identification and selection are carried out,and the spatial Durbin model is used to fit the heterogeneity mechanism between local debt agglomeration and economic growth,and the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect are decomposed."Based on this,the following research conclusions are drawn:(1)From the perspective of overall characteristics,the overall scale of local debt is on the rise,and the pressure to expand the debt risk structure continues to increase.From the perspective of geographical distribution,there is an obvious "same group effect" in each province.Jiangsu is the province with the largest debt balance in the past 9 years,followed by Guangdong,Zhejiang,Shandong and other provinces,which belong to the provinces with high debt,while Xinjiang and Tibet are at the end.(2)From the perspective of the network structure,the local government debt related structure is relatively stable,and the central province has a greater impact on the overall debt.The“center-periphery” spatial correlation pattern is obvious.The core area and peripheral provinces of the local government debt spatial correlation network have changed,and the number and attributes of sectors have shown structural adjustments.(3)From the perspective of spatial agglomeration,there is a strong spatial correlation between local debt agglomeration and the quality of regional economic growth.Regional per capita GDP growth rate and local government debt agglomeration have strong spatial correlation both in economic space and geographical space.(4)From the perspective of the balance relationship,there is a Kuznets inverted U-shaped balance relationship between local debt agglomeration and the quality of regional economic growth.Considering the dual spatial factors of economy and geography,when the debt agglomeration increases gradually within a certain range,the regional economy increases with the increase of debt agglomeration.The regional economy grows to its highest level when the debt agglomeration of the provinces reaches a threshold.When the intensity of debt agglomeration exceeds this value,the regional economy begins to decline and becomes lower and lower.According to the conclusions obtained,it puts forward relevant suggestions such as establishing a new concept of "attribute-relationship" debt governance,scientifically controlling the intensity of local government debt aggregation,building a long-term mechanism for cross-regional joint supervision,and formulating a new strategy for spatial balance of regional elements.