| In recent years,China’s consumption of imported agricultural products has increas-ed year by year,and the requirements for both types,quantity and quality have been rai-sed to an unprecedented level.In addition,the import sources of China’s agricultural pr-oducts are also constantly enriched.The improvement of product quality requirements,the growth of quantity and the lengthening of transaction distance make the application of information and communication technology in the field of agricultural product import more and more in-depth.The application of information and communication technology has enabled the signing of paper contracts,the direct connection between the buyer and the seller,and the monitoring of the whole logistics process,effectively reducing the tra-de cost and facilitating the import trade of agricultural products.Existing studies have affirmed the positive impact of ICT on bilateral trade,but there are relatively few studie-s focusing on the impact of ICT and its mechanism in agricultural trade.Therefore,it is necessary and realistic to study the influencing factors of China’s agricultural products import after the application of information and communication technology.This paper selects China’s major imported agricultural products as the research object,uses the information technology index as an indicator of the level of ICT devel-opment,and analyses the current situation of China’s agricultural imports as well as the development of ICT based on authoritative data released by the World Bank,China Cust-oms and other websites.Secondly,Secondly,in order to avoid the impact of the COVI D-19,a panel model is established by using the relevant data of 10 categories of agricul-tural products imported between China and 22 major trade import source countries fro-m 2010 to 2019,the least square method is used for regression analysis to obtain the impact of various factors on China’s agricultural products import and the degree of impact.Finally,with the help of the ternary marginal model,this paper analyzes the main internal driving force of China’s agricultural import growth from the perspectives of quantity,price and type.The results show that the impact of GDP on China’s agricultural imports is weak-ening,while population size and arable land have a very significant contribution to agri-cultural imports;geographical distance and tariff levels have a more significant inhibit-ing effect;and the development of information and communication technology also has a more significant but less significant contribution to the growth of agricultural import trade.The results of the structural analysis show that,although the impact of the quan-tity and price margins has increased,it is still the quantity margin that is decisive in increasing the value of agricultural imports.The development of information and comm-unication technology has contributed strongly to the development of all three margins.Finally,in view of the development of China’s agricultural import trade and the app-lication of ICT in it,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first,based on the international situation,plan the quantity and structure of agricultural imports and implement classification and control;second,improve cross-border communication cap-acity and strengthen the modern logistics system;third,build an information plat-form for agricultural products and support the development of new information-based industries;fourth,optimise the whole process supervision and Improve problem-solving capabilities and guarantee the safety and regulation of agricultural products imports. |
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