| Pork is the main meat consumer goods in the daily life of Chinese residents,which is closely related to people’s life.In recent years,the frequent outbreaks of pig epidemics(such as African swine fever,swine erysipelas,etc.)have continuously impacted China’s pig market and greatly changed the relationship between supply and demand.The pig epidemic has a great impact on the normal fluctuation of China’s pig industry chain prices(piglets,pigs and pork prices),as well as the healthy and sustainable development of the pig market,social economy and people’s livelihood.Therefore,studying the price fluctuation law of China’s pig industry chain and exploring the impact of the outbreak on the price of China’s pig industry chain is of great significance to ensure the supply of pig market,the interests of pig farmers and the rights and interests of consumers.This paper selects the monthly data of the price of each link of the pig industry chain and the depth index of the pig epidemic from January 2009 to December 2021,and constructs the monthly data of the pig epidemic intensity index through the number of culls,deaths and diseases of the pig epidemic.Combined with the theories of equilibrium price,price asymmetric transmission and industrial fluctuation cycle,this paper analyzes the fluctuation of the price of China’s pig industry chain due to the sudden epidemic.By constructing Markov district system transformation vector autoregressive model(MS-VAR),this paper analyzes the district system transformation characteristics of pig industry chain price affected by sudden epidemic,as well as the duration and transfer probability under the two district system,and studies the reaction degree of each link price of pig industry chain to the price impact of other links under different district systems by using the district system transfer impulse response function;The correlation coefficient analysis method is used to explore the correlation between the depth index of pig epidemic situation and the price of pig industry chain,and then the Granger causality test method is used to study whether the sudden epidemic situation causes the price fluctuation of pig industry chain in China;Based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR),this paper analyzes the effect of pig epidemic(pig epidemic depth index)on the price of pig industry chain from two aspects: equal interval impulse response function and time point impulse response function.The results show that:(1)China’s pig industry chain has obvious characteristics of district system transformation,and the prices of all links of pig industry chain(piglets,pigs and pork)between different districts show asymmetric transmission.The price fluctuation of the pig industry chain is frequently converted between the high and low regions.The conversion rate of the price fluctuation of the pig industry chain from the high fluctuation region system to the low fluctuation region system is high,and both regions have strong sustainability.(2)The reason for the regional system transformation of pig industry chain price in China is a major epidemic.The correlation between the epidemic depth index and the price of pig industry chain is obvious.The change of pig epidemic depth index will lead to the fluctuation of pig industry chain price.(3)The outbreak has a negative impact on the price of pig industry chain in the short term and a positive impact on the price of pig industry chain in the long term.For the equal interval impulse response function,the price response values of piglets and pigs are positive,and gradually decrease with the increase of lag period,and the response value of pork price gradually changes from negative to positive and weakens with the increase of lag period;For the time point impulse response function,the price fluctuation trend of the pig industry chain is relatively consistent,which shows the maximum negative response value in the current period,and then returns to the positive response value first and then gradually weakens with the increase of the lag period.According to the research conclusions,relevant policy suggestions are put forward:firstly,government departments should establish the price regulation mechanism of pig market in different regions,do a good job in epidemic prevention under the low fluctuation region system,and timely regulate local markets under the high fluctuation region system to improve the accuracy of price regulation;Secondly,improve the pig epidemic situation and industrial chain price monitoring system,strengthen the dynamic monitoring and early warning of pig market price cost,and minimize the impact of sudden pig epidemic on the production end;Finally,strengthen the construction of pork cold chain logistics and strictly inspect all links of cold chain logistics to ensure pork quality and safety and reduce the spread of the epidemic. |
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