| While bond market has been growing stronger,bond default has also been accelerated.As a pillar industry related to the national economy and people’s livelihood,the real estate industry has become the "worst disaster area" for bond default since 2021.On this basis,in-depth study of the causes of bond default of real estate enterprises and risk warning has important practical significance,which is conducive to the standardized management of real estate enterprises and the healthy and orderly development of the bond market.In this paper,the quantitative and qualitative research methods are combined,and the representative and typical Yango is selected as the case enterprise,to analyze the causes and risks of bond default of real estate enterprises,and finally put forward targeted suggestions to market participants on the prevention of default risks of real estate enterprises.On the basis of consulting relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper has clarified the theory involved in this study,and reviewed the existing literature results from three perspectives:influencing factors,risk early warning model,identification and prevention of bond default.Secondly,it introduces the status quo of Chinese real estate’s bonds default.Thirdly,the paper introduces the case of Yango’s bond default,and introduces the business structure,default process and rating changes of Yango.Finally,the specific reasons for Yango’s default are analyzed from the external and internal aspects,and then the modified Z’-score model is used for early warning analysis of default risk,and the results of the model are compared with those of rating agencies.And to put forward specific suggestions to real estate bond issuers,real estate investors and credit rating agencies to prevent default risk.The following conclusions can be drawn from above analysis:Firstly,by analyzing the current situation of defaults in the real estate market,it is found that in recent years,the number and amount of defaults on bonds of real estate enterprises have been rising sharply,which has become the leading role of credit defaults in the bond market.At the same time,the frequency of default is closely related to the level of regional development,and the default subjects gradually spread from small and medium-sized real estate enterprises to large real estate enterprises.Real estate enterprise bond default is the result of internal and external factors,the external factors are the incentive,the internal factors are the key.Among them,the external financing environment is tight and the internal management strategy fit is particularly important.The two work together to make the default of housing enterprise.Further analysis shows that the capital-intensive property of real estate enterprises require sufficient cash flow to carry out capital turnover and business expansion,while capital inflow obviously depends on external financing and real estate commodity sales or leasing.From the perspective of external financing,real estate enterprises are keen on high-leverage operation,so their debt burden is too heavy,and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities is huge,which seriously aggravates the debt repayment pressure.Under the financing constraints of the three red lines and loan restriction policies,financing is very difficult,and if the financing scale is not enough to repay the maturing debts,it will lead to bond default.From the perspective of sales analysis,the enterprise’s regional layout strategy is too aggressive or even mismatched,and the lack of market competitiveness leads to a low rate of real estate commodity degradation,a long real estate project cycle,insufficient sales collection effectiveness,and slow capital recovery.Combined with the influence of external factors such as economic downturn,purchase restrictions,epidemic impact and fierce industry competition on sales,the profit index worsened,resulting in housing enterprises’ cash flow exceeding their income,increasing financial risks,and eventually bond default.Third,in recent years,the Z’ value of Yango has been declining and been in a dangerous area,which is consistent with the path of risk accumulation,indicating that the Z’-score model can effectively identify the default risk of Yango,and can be used for pre-default warning.By comparing the Z’ value with the rating results of mainstreaming rating agencies,it is found that the warning ability of the rating results is insufficient,and there are problems of false high and hysteresis.The innovation of this paper lies in the strong timeliness of the case event,and the case company,Yango,is both representative and typical.The systematic analysis of its default event enriches the existing research conclusions on Yango as the default subject.Moreover,the analysis of this paper focuses on the industry attributes of the case company,Yango,and the defects of its business model.Carry out the analysis of its capital-intensive characteristics and aggressive high-leverage expansion business model defects,and put forward optimization suggestions for the defects of its business model.Finally,based on the real estate enterprises themselves,real estate enterprises investors,credit rating agencies,the paper puts forward targeted suggestions.It is suggested that real estate enterprises themselves should carry out reasonable business and regional strategic layout,control the three red lines,optimize the financing structure,and establish an early warning mechanism for financial risks.It is suggested that real estate bond investors should be alerted to the aggressive expansion strategy of real estate and pay attention to the size and structure of debt.It is suggested that rating agencies optimize credit rating methods and introduce "double rating"mechanism. |
