Research On The Impact Of A Country’s Digital Service Trade Restrictions On Its Manufacturing Export Technology Complexity

In recent years,with the rapid development of global digital services trade and the deepening integration of the digital economy and traditional industries,the impact of services delivered in digital form on the development of manufacturing industry is increasingly significant.At the same time,as a new trade model,the regulation of digital services trade has shown new features.Due to the lack of a global governance system for digital services trade,countries have introduced barrier based restrictions on digital services trade within their borders in order to protect their industries and information security,and the number is showing a growing trend,which is bound to have a negative impact on the development of their digital services trade and manufacturing industry.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that high-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a modern socialist country,requiring efforts to promote high-quality development and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern.Trade is an important component of the domestic macro cycle and an important hub connecting the domestic and international dual cycles.Continuously improving the quality of exports and cultivating new competitive advantages in exports are currently important economic development goals for China.In this context,this article explores the impact of trade restrictions on digital services in a country on the technological complexity of its manufacturing exports,and proposes policy recommendations for adjusting trade restrictions on digital services and improving the technological complexity of manufacturing exports based on research findings.This has important significance for improving the development and regulation of China’s digital services trade and promoting the stability and quality of China’s foreign trade.The purpose of this article is to explore the impact of trade restrictions on digital services on the technological complexity of a country’s manufacturing exports and its theoretical mechanisms,and to use empirical methods to test them.In the empirical analysis section,this article uses the OECD database,UN comtrade database,and World Bank database to obtain panel data for 17 manufacturing industry segments in 55 countries from 2014 to 2018.Based on the obtained data,benchmark regression analysis is conducted by constructing an econometric model,and three methods are used for robustness testing.Finally,this paper analyzes the country and industry heterogeneity of the impact of trade restrictions on digital services on the technological complexity of manufacturing exports.Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis mentioned above,it conducts an intermediary effect test based on technological innovation and global value chain participation,as well as a regulatory effect test based on the service-oriented input to manufacturing.This paper draws the following conclusions:First,restrictions on digital services trade have a negative impact on the technological complexity of manufacturing exports,and among the five policy areas,restrictions in the field of intellectual property rights have the most significant inhibitory effect on the increase in technological complexity of manufacturing exports;Secondly,trade restrictions on digital services inhibit the increase in the technological complexity of manufacturing exports by impeding technological innovation and the upgrading of the industry’s global value chain position;Thirdly,the negative impact of trade restrictions on digital services on the technological complexity of manufacturing exports has significant country and industry heterogeneity.Specifically,the negative impact of trade restrictions on digital services on the technological complexity of manufacturing exports is greater in developed countries and countries with higher levels of Internet development,and the negative impact of trade restrictions on digital services on the technological complexity of high-tech manufacturing exports is greater.Based on the research conclusions,this article proposes the following policy recommendations:First,reduce restrictions on digital services trade,actively and steadily promote the opening up of digital services trade,while improving the level of service-oriented manufacturing investment and Internet development,to help the opening up of digital services trade better serve the improvement of the technological complexity of manufacturing exports;Secondly,it is necessary to reduce restrictions on trade in digital services in a targeted manner.On the one hand,it is necessary to attach importance to trade in digital services in the field of intellectual property rights and create a new environment for intellectual property protection.On the other hand,it is necessary to attach great importance to the content of trade in digital services that is closely related to the development of high-tech manufacturing industry,and promote policy reform and improvement in a direction that is more conducive to the development of high-tech manufacturing industry;Third,strengthen exchanges and cooperation with developed countries,and improve China’s regulatory policies for digital service trade;Fourth,in the context of the continuous development of digital services trade,the technological complexity of manufacturing exports should be increased in multiple channels and in all directions;Fifth,we should assume the responsibility of a major country,actively participate in global governance of digital service trade,and build a good global digital ecosystem.