Research On Risk Identification And Prevention Of Long-term Rental Apartment Capital Chain

Since the beginning of the era of commercial housing in China,the overall price of housing has continued to rise,and has become a "mountain" for people with housing needs.Therefore,the contemporary urban youth and floating population are more inclined to meet their housing needs through high-quality rental housing.After the report of the19 th National Congress of the CPC put forward the keynote of "no speculation in housing,simultaneous development of rent and purchase" and the introduction of a large number of supporting policies for the rental market,the long-term rental apartment market ushered in explosive growth.However,it has been only about 5years since the outbreak of China’s long-term rental apartment market in 2017.The market is not mature enough,and chaos occurs frequently in the development process.Many long-term rental apartment enterprises have broken and closed down their capital chains due to poor operation.In serious cases,in 2019 alone,more than 40 enterprises ran away due to the broken capital chains.Most of these long-term rental apartments lack industry supervision,blindly adopt high leverage operation and lack scientific fund management,which ultimately leads to the breaking of the capital chain.Therefore,the research on the capital chain management of long-term rental apartments has strong practical significance,which can not only provide a reference for the long-term rental apartment enterprises in the industry to identify their own capital chain risks,but also provide them with relevant preventive measures to prevent the capital chain from breaking.This thesis selects Qingke apartment,the first listed long-term rental apartment enterprise in China,as the research object.Based on the annual report data of the company in the past five years and the financial data of choice,and supported by relevant theories such as capital circulation,this thesis through quota analysis and literature investigation to identify the risks of each link of the capital chain circulation of Qingke apartment.This thesis first introduces the general situation of the long-term rental apartment industry as a support for analyzing some problems with industry characteristics in Qingke apartment.Secondly,the financial index analysis is used to identify the risks of the capital input chain,capital operation chain and capital return chain of Qingke apartment.It is found that the capital chain of Qingke apartment has such main risks as narrow financing channels,improper financing structure,insufficient operating capacity,high cost and insufficient profitability.Then we use Z-score Model and F-score model to evaluate its capital chain risk as a whole,and find that the capital chain risk of Qingke apartment is high as a whole,there is bankruptcy risk,and the risk is rising year by year.According to the risk identification results of Qingke apartment and the corresponding cause analysis,this thesis puts forward the following preventive measures to reduce the risk of capital chain fracture: opening up and broadening financing methods;Moderately reduce leverage operations and improve corporate credit ratings;Strengthen cost control;Avoid blind expansion and conduct feasibility analysis before investment;Expand diversified return income;Strengthen the budget management of capital income.The content of this study has to some extent filled the gap in the research on the capital chain risk of long-term rental apartments,and has certain reference significance for longterm rental apartment companies to discover their own capital chain problems.