Study Of Quarantine Insurance Product Design Based On Infectious Disease Dynamics

To this day,COVID-19 caused by novel coronavirus is still in a global epidemic state.In the early stages of the epidemic,extremely strict epidemic prevention and control measures were developed to maximize the safety of the population’s life and health.With the emergence of new strains,the infectiousness of the virus continued to increase and the lethality gradually weakened.In November 2022,the State Council officially issued a notice to explicitly slow down the current epidemic prevention and control policy and guide residents to resume normal production and living order.Although the strict prevention and control initiatives brought about by the COVID-19 exited our lives,we still need to learn from the experience and be alert to the recurrence of similar events.Among the many outbreak prevention and control initiatives,quarantine is widely used in outbreak practice as an effective means of interrupting the chain of transmission of an outbreak.For the public,the frequent containment caused by repeated epidemics brings a certain amount of economic pressure while safeguarding th e lives and health of individuals.Insurance,as an effective means of risk diversification and transfer,can compensate individuals for the economic losses caused by quarantine control.Therefore,it is important to explore the design ideas of realistic and feasible quarantine insurance products,which can provide some inspiration for the design of corresponding insurance products for insurance companies as well as provide some protection for individuals under the risk of epidemic,and has important practical research significance.Considering that quarantine insurance products are closely related to the development of COVID-19,it is necessary to include the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 into the research scope when designing quarantine insurance products.This thesis first explores the current market practice of quarantine insurance products in the context of existing literature and finds that there are problems such as lack of risk control measures and unreasonable pricing in previous quarantine insurance products.Then,this thesis describes the dynamics of infectious diseases that can model the process of disease transmission,including common concepts,classical models and model solving algorithms.In order to better simulate the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 and achieve the purpose of this paper,the SEIQRSqEq model,which considers quarantine control and is more realistic,is selected for this paper.The model is a modified model of the SEIR model,with the introduction of susceptible quarantine population,latent quarantine population and confirmed quarantine population.The model is a modified model of the SEIR model,which introduces three compartments of susceptible quarantine population,latent quarantine population and confirmed population on the basis of the original model,and redefines the meaning of each compartment to suit the real situation.Combined with the lack of risk control measures for quarantine insurance products,this thesis uses the above model to simulate and predict the epidemic rounds in Shanghai in March 2022,and conducts numerical simulations of insurance rates under different risk control measures.The results show that the premiums derived from numerical simulations differ significantly under different risk control measures,and the growth rate of premiums is positively related to the spread of the epidemic,with the rapid spread of the epidemic leading to a significant increase in premiums within a short period of time.Since most of the quarantine insurance products are sold on the Internet,with uniform pricing and form terms,insurers need to take appropriate risk control measures for the determined rates,and to fulfill their obligations to clearly indicate the exclusion clauses in case they are involved.Considering that there are uncontrollable factors in the epidemic and the parameter setting has a great impact on the simulation prediction of the infectious disease dynamics model,insurers need to keep an eye on the development of the epidemic,make reasonable use of the empirical data,and make timely adjustments to the parameters involved in the model or the model itself to achieve the sound operation of quarantine insurance products.