Analysis On The Factors Affecting The Prepayment Behavior Of Credit Card Installment Securitization

As the basic asset of credit card asset securitization,the installment loan of credit card will generate cash flow fluctuations due to different repayment behaviors of cardholders.according to the latest Notice,if the cardholder pays in advance,the bank should refund the corresponding commission of the remaining principal already collected.There are more factors for the cardholder to consider whether to repay in advance,so it is particularly important to study the influencing factors of credit card repayment in advance and the influencing results.The behavior of the cardholder to repay the loan in advance can be called prepayment.This paper divides the influencing factors of cardholders’ prepayment into two types:willingness to repay and ability to repay,and makes a detailed theoretical analysis and statistical analysis respectively.It finds that the "equal principal and interest" of credit card installment repayment(the principal payable in each installment is the same as the processing fee)will reduce the refinancing cost,which will directly affect the cardholders’ willingness to repay.Is the core reason for early payment of cardholders.In this paper,multiple variables such as regional information.loan term,loan amount,borrower industry,borrower’s assets and liabilities,borrower’s housing situation,age of account,credit investigation quality,etc.are used to represent the repayment ability of cardholders,and the model is made by Logit and Probit regression models.It is found that the factors affecting the borrower’s prepayment behavior mainly include the contract amount,the number of installments,the age of account,the quality of credit investigation,the use of funds,the length of local residence and so on.These influencing factors are the factors that should be paid attention to when the asset securities are incorporated into the pool.By setting conditions to screen the assets into the pool,the early compensation rate of securitized assets can be effectively controlled.In this paper,real sample data are used to simulate pooled assets,and the cash flow generated by each sample of pooled assets is calculated in detail.On the basis of meeting the statistical distribution probability of existing data,the proportion of early claims and the occurrence time point of early claims are obtained by using Monte Carlo simulation method.The cash flow of the whole pooled assets is measured.The empirical results show that early compensation has a significant impact on the return rate of the entire asset cash flow.Even when the proportion of early compensation is very small,when extreme circumstances occur,the annualized return rate will decrease significantly and fluctuate greatly.At the same time,when the proportion of early compensation increases,the annualized return rate of the entire asset will decline.This has a great impact on the pricing of the whole asset securities and the secondary income.The early payment of credit card installment loan cannot be ignored.