Research On The Impact Of Analysts’ Optimistic Bias On The Risk Of Stock Price Crash

The stock price collapse of listed companies refers to the rapid and sharp decline of the company’s stock price in a very short time and without any warning.This is an abnormal phenomenon in the capital market,and its harm is very widespread.Analysts play an information intermediary role in the market by publishing research reports of target companies and providing earnings forecasts and other information.However,analysts’ earnings forecasts are generally optimistic.Based on the principal-agent theory and information asymmetry theory,this paper takes the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2007 to 2021 as samples to discuss whether the optimistic bias of analysts’ earnings forecasts affects the risk of stock price collapse of listed companies,and further investigate whether this relationship is affected by the pressure from institutional investors and their securities firms.The research finds that the greater the analyst’s optimism bias,the higher the risk of stock price collapse of listed companies;The higher the proportion of institutional investors and the greater the pressure from their securities companies,the greater the deviation of analysts’optimism and the higher the risk of stock price collapse.This study provides a reasonable explanation for the stock price collapse of listed companies,and is of great significance for a comprehensive understanding of the role of analysts in the capital market,as well as how to reduce the risk of stock price collapse and promote the stable and healthy development of the capital market.