Research On The Vulnerability Of China’s Imported Grain Supply Chain

China is a country with a large population,and the demand for food is large;at the same time,with the development of the economy and the increase of national income,people’s demand for meat,eggs and milk is increasing,and the demand for feed grain is also increasing.In recent years,China’s grain output has continued to rise,and China’s grain self-sufficiency has basically been achieved.However,the structural differences in China’s grain supply are large,especially soybeans,corn,etc.need to be imported in large quantities every year.Therefore,the imported grain supply chain plays an important role in China’s grain supply.Importing grain in an appropriate amount through international trade will help China make full use of the international division of labor and comparative advantages to make up for the lack of China’s self-produced grain.However,once there is a risk of delay or rupture in China’s grain import supply chain,it will be directly affect the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy,national stability and long-term social stability.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the influencing factors of the vulnerability of China’s imported grain supply chain to ensure its security and stability.Since there are many factors affecting the vulnerability of China’s imported grain supply chain,and the relationship between the factors is intricate,this thesis chooses the system dynamics method,which is good at solving complex system problems,to analyze the vulnerability of China’s imported grain supply chain,and investigate the mechanism of action of the influencing factors.And policy recommendations to reduce the vulnerability of imported food supply chains is put forward.First,the factors affecting the vulnerability of China’s imported grain supply chain from three aspects is identify: demand,transportation and supply,and three subsystems accordingly is divided,the causal relationship between the vulnerability factors is find out,and China’s imported food supply chain is establish.Secondly,a large amount of data is collect,establish the mathematical relationship between various variables,and a series of model tests to verify that it conforms to the actual operating mechanism and modeling purposes is conduct.Then,the simulation analysis of the factors affecting the vulnerability of China’s imported food supply chain is carried out.The results show that increasing the proportion of China’s agricultural labor force,financial support for agriculture,agricultural mechanization level,port service level and the substitutability of food exporting countries will reduce the concentration of food import sources.It can reduce the vulnerability of China’s imported food supply chain.At the same time,reasonable results were obtained when the model was used in the comparative analysis of the vulnerability of China and India’s imported food supply chains,which verifies the scalability of the model.