Digital Inclusive Finance And Non-performing Loans Of Urban Commercial Banks

The emergence of digital inclusive finance is the result of the combination of inclusive finance and financial technology,and is a typical case of technological innovation.The country attaches great importance to the development of digital inclusive finance and emphasizes the need to build a financial system with strong adaptability,inclusiveness and competitiveness,enhance financial inclusiveness and promote economic development.At the same time,we should strengthen the supervision of digital financial risks.The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a new stage of the development of China’s digital economy,a new period of application deepening,standardized development and inclusive sharing,and puts forward higher requirements for the development of digital inclusive finance.However,with the rapid development of digital inclusive finance,the traditional finance operations of urban commercial banks will be affected.The development of digital inclusive finance will divert some customers from urban commercial banks.City commercial banks are faced with huge competitive pressure and have to reform their original business models and repeatedly lower the threshold for lending to attract customers.As a result,it will have a certain impact on the non-performing loans of banks.From this,the thesis makes a systematic analysis of the impact of the development of digital financial inclusion on the non-performing loans of urban commercial banks by combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.This paper analyzes the theory of digital inclusive finance and non-performing loans of commercial banks,and analyzes the impact of digital inclusive finance on commercial banks from multiple perspectives.Then,the text analyzes the mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting non-performing loans from two aspects: intensifying the competition of bank deposit and loan market and forcing the expansion of bank branches.Based on the data of 77 urban commercial banks from 2011 to 2020 and the data of digital financial inclusion index,this text uses panel model and mediation effect model to empirically analyze the impact of digital financial inclusion on non-performing loans of urban commercial banks.The panel model is used to explore the relationship between digital inclusive finance and non-performing loans of urban commercial banks.Heterogeneity analysis is carried out from two aspects: whether city commercial banks are listed and whether digital finance is regulated.Then the loan-to-deposit ratio and the number of branches of banks are used as intermediary variables to explore the mechanism of digital inclusive finance affecting non-performing loans of banks.The following conclusions are obtained: First,the development of digital inclusive finance has increased the risk of non-performing loans in urban commercial banks.Second,the development of digital inclusive finance has a significant difference in the impact on the non-performing loan ratio of listed city commercial banks and non-listed city commercial banks.Third,with the intervention of financial supervision,the negative effect of the development of digital financial inclusion on the non-performing loan ratio of city commercial banks has improved.Fourth,the development of digital inclusive finance has increased the risk of non-performing loans in urban commercial banks,and the bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio and the expansion of city commercial bank branches play an intermediary effect.On the one hand,the improvement of the development level of digital inclusive finance has led to the continuous rise of the deposit and loan ratio of China’s commercial banks,which has led to the continuous rise of the non-performing loan ratio of banks.On the other hand,the development of digital inclusive finance stimulates the expansion of branches of city commercial banks,which in turn leads to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of banks.