| Personal business loans provide financial support for natural persons to participate in economic activities.In China’s market economy at this stage,there are a large number of individual businesses,family workshops and other forms of economic activity entities.They are the minimum micro-economic basis of China’s economy,with strong vitality and flexible business methods.However,on the other hand,due to the nonstandard and decentralized operation,it is difficult to supervise individual operational loans.The system needs to be improved,and the technology needs to identify the credit risk of individual operational loan customers.Since 2020,China’s economy and even the world economy have suffered from external shocks in terms of the COVID-19,natural disasters and the international political and economic situation,and China’s economic growth has slowed down.When faced with external shocks,personal operating loans often have high production and operation costs because of their ability to avoid risks.This will also increase the credit risk of personal operating loans.To create an indicator system that can scientifically and accurately predict the credit risk of individual operational loan customers,Bank D X branch was selected to conduct research.Bank D X branch has been established for several years and is one of the main branches of Bank D.In recent years,the profit growth of Bank D has been slow,especially in 2022,which is mainly due to the sharp increase in the provision for corporate non-performing loans.Therefore,Bank D hopes to incline its development direction towards personal loans,especially personal operational loans with higher income.However,due to the impact of external environment,the number of personal operational loans has decreased,and the internal risk control system is not complete,its proportion of non-performing loans has not been effectively controlled.Personal operational loan is an important credit product of Bank D X Branch.Using the personal operational loan occurrence data of Bank D X Branch to study the credit risk evaluation system of loan customers is of representative and applicable significance for focusing on the risk management of such loans of Bank D.First,this paper systematically combs the existing research on the credit risk evaluation system of individual operating loan customers from three aspects.Use the existing research results for reference,and determine the research perspective and methods of this paper on this basis.Through literature review,it is found that personal operating loans face more serious credit risk problems than other loan products,mainly manifested in the scattered and non-standard business activities of loan customers,resulting in regulatory difficulties and credit risk identification difficulties.In the empirical part of this paper,the logistic model stepwise regression analysis method is used to screen the variables in the model from the five dimensions of loan customers.Finally,the logistic regression model retains seven independent variables: marital status,ownership of business premises,spouse income,current ratio,debt ratio,ratio of accounts receivable to assets and loan term,After checking the model,it was found that the accuracy of the seven independent variables for the prediction of the credit risk of the individual operating loan customers of Bank D X Branch was 99.8%,and the prediction accuracy was very high.Finally,the indicator system for credit risk evaluation was determined according to the regression equation.The evaluation system can quantify and identify the credit risk of loan customers to a certain extent,thus playing a positive role in precise risk control and improving the efficiency of loan review. |
PDF Full Text Request