An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration Events On Investor Sentiment And Stock Market

The stock market is unpredictable and multi-dimensional in nature,full of various events.Any one of these events may have an impact on investors’ sentiment,leading them to make different investment behaviors,which in turn affects the stock market.The release of restricted shares is a common historical public event that can be accessed by investors in advance.Traditionally,investors have stereotyped the Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration as an overall event that releases a negative signal,and thus become nervous about it,which will cause a negative impact on the market.But this is not the case,and a small number of investors still find profit opportunities in the unbinding event.Therefore,it is worth exploring in detail what effect the event of Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration will have.In this paper,we use behavioral event research,finance theory,and theories related to the impact of Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration and investor sentiment on the stock market to examine the effect of Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration in detail,to find out whether it has a significant impact on investor sentiment,stock bar postings,stock yields and trading volume.What is the extent of the effect? What are the timing characteristics?In addition,we innovatively divide the restricted stock into three dimensions: type of restricted stock,company attributes and restricted shareholding structure,and investigate whether there is a significant difference in the unbinding effect between different types of restricted shares in each of the four aspects: investor sentiment index,stock bar posting volume,stock market yield and trading volume? What kind of differences exist? And are factors such as type of restricted shares,company attributes and restricted shareholding structure effective influencing factors of the unbinding effect?Based on the unbinding sample of CSI 300 index constituents from April 01,2017 to April 30,2022,the following conclusions are obtained from the study: Restricted Stock Lockup Expiration has a significant positive panic effect on investors’ sentiment,an increased boosting effect on stock bar postings,a negative shock effect on stock yield and is concentrated on the day before unbinding,and a positive increase in stock trading volume,mainly concentrated after the unbinding date.Based on the type of restricted stocks(restricted stocks from stock reform,restricted stocks from initial public offering,restricted stocks from refinancing and restricted stocks from other reasons such as equity incentives),company attributes(pharmaceuticals and electronics,Internet technology,real estate and finance,minerals and energy and transportation)and the equity structure of restricted stocks(state-controlled shareholders,institutional-controlled shareholders,foreign-controlled shareholders,company executive shareholders,natural person shareholders and other private shareholders),the grouping test also confirms that there are significant differences in the unbinding effect among different types of restricted stocks,company attributes and restricted stock equity structure,and that the type of restricted stocks,company attributes and restricted stock equity structure are effective factors influencing the unbinding effect.Finally,an econometric analysis with the help of multiple regression analysis is conducted to further deepen and extend this conclusion.